Jack Hershey's Methodologies (SCT & PVT)-Good Bad or Ugly

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by sappjason, Feb 28, 2010.

Do Jack Hershey's Methodologies warrant serious study?

  1. Fantastic-Jack's methodologies warrant the full attention of all traders (both new and professionals

    26 vote(s)
  2. Good-Jack's methodologies are good and should be studied to enhance trader profitability.

    10 vote(s)
  3. Average-Jack's methodolgies are really no better or worse than any other methodology.

    13 vote(s)
  4. Poor-Jack's methodologies are poor (or inferior) and really do not provide the means for a trader to

    18 vote(s)
  5. Horrible-Jack's methodologies are potentially damaging and a waste of time and money to even conside

    171 vote(s)
  1. Oh. I just looked at the poll results. It looks like my "mentally challenged" poll, is saying that the consensus of folks on this board are saying that your trading acumen (and methodologies) well...... Kind-a suck.

    #11     Mar 1, 2010
  2. achilles28


    I think the basic principles behind SCT have merit.

    That said, everyone interprets market activity their own way. SCT is Jacks perspective. It's not my perspective. I think price action can be understood in much simpler terms. But we can both be right.
    #12     Mar 1, 2010
  3. If you can't see the discrepancy, maybe that explains why you intermediately followed your claim about the "batting order" by saying "there are no claims about the batting order."

    If the moderation stinks it's because they allow you to make absurd claims like this with impunity.

    #13     Mar 1, 2010
  4. charts


    #14     Mar 2, 2010
  5. Your poll is coorborrated by many other polls as has been mentioned to you by others. Persnonally I suggested the results would be the 4 out of 5 reject the methodology and probably they also have the view that I am wierd, etc..

    Specifically. with repect to a line in the sand, I am on the side where making money is the principle bankable virtue of the methods.

    Your quest is to improve the reults of what your profession has enabled you to do.

    You trained to do programming and part of that is collecting information to achieve better results. A poll reveals something to you and you comment on the quality of the methods we use to make money.

    here is an illustration involving algebra and a data set for timing the market.

    Two lines intersect as a consequence and protection is added as trailing stops. M1 and M2 are the slopes of the respective lines. This is easily programmable. Some an intersection is determind by algebra. the equations also have constants that are added as timing elements.

    As you see stats are programmed so a trailing stop can be adjusted at tha end of each day.

    80% of your sample reject this approach for their good reasons.

    This is how a beginner can trade stocks at a rate of once a week for 10% nominally.

    #15     Mar 2, 2010
  6. hHere is the one pager that was created to handle entries on 30 minute charts based on a leading indicator of price. The batting order is associated with the signals from this chart.


    A few years ago I gave this the T666 so he could correct his screwup on his mistakne back test on timing of trades when scoring is used. He has posted a copy of a paper from some site somewhere.
    #16     Mar 2, 2010
  7. As you have seen, several people have posted that the methods cannot be programmed.

    These people certainly cannot program the methods. How could they be able to program algebra, look up tables, or logic? They can't be able is what there responses measured.

    Trader666 could not come up with and way of collecting snippets and put them in a test of any universe of stocks. A universe is something that is a filter by its characterisitics. He uses a filter to get stocks that was available to the general public.

    You have been educated at JHU and you studied in a field thatdeals with programming. Maybe you can do a poll to see if a programmer can code a method by either using algebra, geometry, lookup tables, or logic.

    My opinion is that I can suggest a rough out of lines required for each and I can set up a way to iteratively refine any method by specifying the refinements needed.

    If you specifically look at the mark post you see his limitations in reasoning quite clearly. He may have voted in the 80% group. What would his reason be. It is based on his personal capabilities.

    You could be saying things that relate to agreeing with him; if so you are throwing your training in the trash as are many others.

    You may want to do a poll on how markets work. then you get to see a corrolation among success in trading and skills developed as a consequence of knowing how markets work.

    Look at the recent failure of Tzones to be able to fifferntiate among three pairs as to thei individual characterisitcs. He see them as identities when there is not way to measure them and get any corrolation as identities or even come close. LO is in the same boat a T zones so far. Look at his failure to differeantiate patterns by their potential to make money. His doesn't sellect any to examine that are very significant (he must have polled traders to find out) and those he did select did have two that were correlated with making money but his measurements did not tell him they did because of his failure to test properly.
    #17     Mar 2, 2010
  8. Jack,
    A few things.

    #1) I honestly and whole-heartedly appreciate your attempts to help me. I also appreciate your transparency in saying that some people have the view that you are weird. I say that because I know that it must be difficult to live with the fact that many people may feel that way about you and I'm sure that must suck.
    #2) I've been doing my research on you..... It's important to me, in order to trust what someone else says, that the person exhibits some semblance of trust-worthiness. This (of course) isn't always easy to determine with on-line relationships. But, I've done the best I can.... I've read all of the meeting minutes during the time you hosted your Tucson AZ IBD meetings (from 8/11/2005 through 3/22/2007). To be honest..... What I found surprised me. I was expecting to see people get pissed off at you and hate you. Or, perhaps for the meeting attendance to dry-up during the period of you being at the helm. However, I saw the exact opposite. I saw that people there (who worked with you face-to-face) respected you and seemed to really get a lot out of what you had to say and teach. Attendance peaked with you there as well. On an interesting, but related note: I also noticed that many of the woman spoke highly of you while you were there. Is that simply because you were a good teacher or were you hitting on them? (just a little joke there)
    #3) Why? Why teach complete strangers how to be wildly profitable traders for free? I'm not saying that I don't believe that you are attempting to doing this. Because I do...... The record that has been recorded in digital foot-prints all over ET (and various other places) speaks for itself. You do this 100% for free!!!!!
    #4) How do you know that what you teach is profitable? I'm not trying to be a sarcastic ass here. Because, obviously you believe that it is.... I'm asking honestly and sincerely. Did you (or do you) trade using PVT and SCT and do you (or have you) extracted tons of money from our markets that enabled you to not only provide for yourself (and your family), but also help others in need?



    PS-I have no problem what-so-ever attempting to automate your methodologies (or bits and pieces of your methodology). If it's (in any way shape or form) quantifiable, I believe I could do it. If it's not quantifiable and perhaps your methodologies are purely discretionary, then so be it.......... Any thoughts on that?
    #18     Mar 2, 2010
  9. As a follow up on the two straight line composition in cluding trailg stops, the focus is on the lines and the timing represented by thier placement.

    The least sloped line is related the the EPSand RS of the stock. Liquidity and other factors also provide getting it into a universe. In this cae however it was a stocksuggested by someone at the time you see it was posted san annotations.

    A bare chart was the basis of an enquiry like the polling but somewhat more focussed on two things: thee method and making money with it.

    the response involved working the stock into the universe and that failing just working through the equivalent of getting it on a batting order. The second applied because it could not meet the price qualitfications.

    Here we have a programmer for JHU who made his own ATS and he uses it along side workingat a job.

    this second chart is a chart that shows him what he didn't ask for but what someone else did ask for a while back.

    What is the consequence of knowing the timing of a trade and how to keep in the trade by using triling stops. Here in polling we find out, as usual, that less that the % for commonly accepted data for traders that fail reject this possible way to step up the the line and trade.

    This illustration makes several points.

    1. Using the IAS helps to determine the intersection of lines that relate two fractals with repect to thsi stock. the less sloped line is the carrier of the natural profit cycle that this stock does 5 time in 6 months. This stock is , therefore, repeatable and reliable".

    2. The slope of the traded cycle is also "repeatable and reliable". It also may be used as an offest for setting trailing stops on a daily basis.

    3. using 10 spikes and averaging them (adding and moving the decimal point on the sum) turns out to be method 5 or 6 in the reiew and fully referenced papar I presented on choosing stops where 12 ways were considerred. This study is on a par with any significant study ever done I deem research a good way to find out how to do things properly. People who reject our methods are ejecting the exhaustive work that backs it up.

    4. Looking at a 30 minute chart after sorting and preparing using daily charts is a good work modus. The leading indicator signal chart was verified using a 400,000 element sample. No refinements were required.

    5. indicators are useful for trading. Two line indicators have six cases for determing the order of events. This is in the same range as the 9 cases of adjacent bars. Both of these contributed to the logic of patterns as determined on a deductive basis using a HS and its PM.

    #19     Mar 2, 2010
    #20     Mar 2, 2010