Jack Hershey Method Since 2008

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by bwolinsky, Apr 28, 2012.

  1. I have 5 gigs of Hershey stuff. I do remember that piece. I am not sure about the numbers he gave. But I have all the meetups and all that, nkhoi gave them to me when my laptop died a few years back.
     
    #31     May 20, 2012
  2. Blowinsky posts some trials he is running on paper.

    They get given returns which are similar to reporting hedgefunds.

    If anyone wishes, they can calculate the market's offer in various markets.

    Once that is done, the market's offer can be compared to blowinsky.

    Years ago in the time of floppy disks, the PVT software was set up as an ATS. It was used with real money on a Universe that was derived weekly. Stocks were traded from that Universe at that time.

    The results were stated in terms of a profit segment average (!!.!%) and a hold time average (8.8 days if I remember correctly).

    I guess everyone knows that to double you money @ 10 % per turn takes 7 or 8 turns. So roughly speaking this system of using PVT at that time would take around 60 days to double capital.

    This is four doublings a year, roughly. 1 to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8 and 8 to 16.

    In stocks this is 1600% using an ATS and its Universe does not seem complicated.

    Blowinski has been given the source document for coding the PVT for years and years. A person did get it from ET and in Sunnyvale, CA he coded it and kept a P&L of investing his money.
    I got the floppies when he drove to Tucson and dropped them off. He printed his P and L and we reviewed it and made one improvement that, later was determined to have helped by 15%.

    The PVT one pager is too complex for Blowinski or he would have "lifted " it and started selling it as one of his services.

    The five rules are:

    1. Wait as long as the stock is in DU. DU is defined as a stated fixed portion of a 65 day average.

    this is a tough rule. All you have is published 65 day averages all over the place and it is a tough deal to multiply this value by the portion value and look at stocks every 30 minutes to see how the stock is doing on a particular day in your Universe.

    The Universe is a one click look up. After you fill in once the permenant criteria.

    2. If on a given day the DU is replaced by FRV, then when the volume goes from black to green on the chart, you have 1 and 1/2 hours BEFORE price begins to rise to get in at the bottom of the cycle. (a 20% cycle of price variation.)

    Step 2 is just as tough as step 1. specific portions are involved.

    But the one pager does have a chart filled in that "normalizes" the volume so that any 65 day average volume can be used very quickly.

    The software we use on the universe does all these calculations all the time during the day. the sheets with the math in the cells have been posted over and over.

    3. Keep holding the stock after FRV.

    4. Make sure the stock is exceeding PRV.

    5. Sell the stock after it hits peaking volume and can't maintain peaking volume.


    This is a tough one. Peaking volume is defined as a portion of the 65 day average volume. You have to do three parallel monitoring tasks which are each identical except for the values which define DU, FRV and peaking volume. Three columns in a chart are given you. There is one for each of DU, FRV and Peaking volume.

    The rows in the chart let you check things every 30 minutes.

    This is a tough procedure to use and it makes about 1600 percent a year. There are no draw downs.

    We found that by testing 400,000 stocks we did not have to change any values anywhere on the one pager. It was done correctly right from its inception. It took 15 minutes to dictate the chart.

    You do have to use very high beta stocks and the Universe gives those to you.

    One of the most humorour misapplications of the chart was done by an airhead named Trader666. Neat name by the way. He got a result from 24,000 trades and they showed an average loss of 19 dollars per group of stocks. The group size varied and we nevre found out how. It was above a round lot. On a per share basis the loss was not more than 19 cents a share. If mathematical analysis were used the results would have been deemed statisitically insignificant. No gain or loss was showing on average. So he chose bad low beta stocks. The bar to trading is very very low. This person still got under the bar as did blowinski.

    Why does a person give up making 1600% a year, year after year for more than five years? I believe the reason is this. They do not know how to steal very well.

    If you want to get into trading and get up to speed fast, just take the rules of a system that has been proven to make about 1600% a year and has a sharpe ratio of over 60.

    How do you get the proof of this ystem? That is simple. Here are the steps you do yourself.

    1. print the one pager.

    2. print the rules for filling in the Universe search engine.

    4. get and maintain a Universe.

    5. use the scoring rules to score the Universe.

    6. monitor 1's becoming 0's becoming 7's.

    7. Use the PVT one pager to monitor and analyze DU, FRV, and peaking volume and put your trades in an Excel.

    8. look at the excel ROI box that tells you an anuualized rate of return on your capital. Look for numbers like 1 6 0 0.

    9. To be sure, forward test for 5 years.

    I took a shortcut.

    I called up a shoe company and asked what their motto would be once they started the sneaker part. They said: "Just do It". that was over 53 years ago. I just did it.

    Now 53 years later, it is getting safe for people who can follow simple rules to use those simple rules even though all that has been done for you and given to you is way beyond what your mind could ever do on its own.
     
    #32     May 20, 2012
    Sprout likes this.
  3. That is where you went wrong.
     
    #33     May 20, 2012
  4. That's good idea.
     
    #34     May 20, 2012
  5. FYI

    How much of an ROI you get on capital is based upon taking the full offer of the market. For the Es and similar commodities it is 3 to 5 times the daily range. The daily range means the high of the day minus the low of the day. Most people make the money as the profit segments unfold.

    I have posted thousands of profit segments.

    It boils down to a system. There is no algorithm. If you are looking for algorithms in a deduced system, you may be blowing in the wind as usual.

    Trend monitoring and analysis replaces the myth xalled "trend following".

    A system is a complete and perfectly defined living organism composted of the ways in which behavioral finance has been completely and accuartely defined.

    Dodd and Granville stated the working hypothesis that govern all market behavior. they followed Keynes requirement that the system's HS be "in kind" and complete. The resulting PM of this HS is done exclusively in the context of the dictated mathematics of the market.

    The financial industry has set up a way of certifying turkey who answer the questions they ask by using the answers they prefer. this is just a measure of the progress of our civilization. government parts of the Executive branch monitor and judge the activities of the participants. the legislative branch built a framework for monitors and practitions to participate in.

    I am a parasite and I use pool extraction. I take money out of huge pools of capital unimpeded.

    I looked thoroughly at the system our culture built. I operate as a parsite in a systemmic way inside this overall alarger system. no one affects the larger system.

    At present Time magine shows the humor of the ignorant observers of the system. Andrew Lo made time's 100 list. Their quote printed that he made to someone who was ingorant and receptive was" "Buying and holding doesn't work anymore."

    Time magazine has advertizers and subscribers. Please do not use it for more than casual entertainment.

    As a parasite, I have to use my system to frontrun big money in order that big money keep pushing me.

    Big money hired smoking mathematicians to zoom in and really work hard on the dependent variable. You may not know what I am talking about at this point. You are studying to pass tests that are ill conceived and ill founded and whose myths are what is tested.

    As a parasite I deal with the independent variable in markets. Mathematically speaking it is safe to say that the dependent variable follows the independent variable.

    Here is the way it all turns out.

    To understand what I do, you have to know something. I give this example often.

    The SEC used to cite me for "insider trading". they had a profound reason. when someone watches what I do, it appears to be "insider trading" in terms of what the dependent variable does in my accounts.

    wouldn't you like to have computer software that detects all insider traders? A person anwsering this question might say yes.

    But I know if you had it, you would still not be able to know anything about a parasitic trader going about his business.

    So anyway I told everyone what I do and it is on tapes.

    The SEC sited me and they never did find out and understand what I do. What the SEC did to me had to be corrected though.

    I have told everyone what I do and I have handed out the rules too.

    The cash Cow is not like anything I do directly with the variables of the market.

    The cash cow began as a test of whether indicators could be used to trade markets. The answer is yes. It is better to use independent variables as constituents of indicators but since the market is so huge, being inefficient and ineffective still works. 65% a year is what when you compound weekly returns or daily returns? It is a trivial return. It is still not statisitically significant.

    On average the casinos change my dealers three times every 45 minutes. It does not affect my winnings and they certainly know that by now. they also know that my approach is prohibitted when detectable by them or the government. the government feels it is very unfair for me to extract capital by having a profile of an "insider trader".

    My systemic approach is not related to the "fundamental" characterisitcs of insider traders. real Insider traders use funbdamental type data to do their thing. I use technical analysis which is a different technical analysis than that taught to answer questions of tests for getting certified.

    People here have tapes of me speaking and doing the deductive proofs that became my system. I am like Salman Khan and I deal in math areas he can't understand nor teach.

    I am a game changer it turns out.

    Insider traders ordinarily cheat and make money doing it.

    I parasitically front run big money. I "read" the market. In Blackjack I front run the deck the dealers deal. I read the 4 decks. Long ago I read 1 deck. Other players sitting with me do not like me. I get free strong drinks.

    Reading the market happens in two steps:

    1. You fully differeniate your mind. Make a mental ATS.

    2. You just read leading indicators of price which you trade.

    In black jack you put down chips so their multiple can be returned to you between hands.

    During hands you look at cards that are no longer in the deck. This draws your mind to the order of events of using the next cards.

    I'll post some lessons for you to whine about.
     
    #35     May 20, 2012
  6. No go on the video. Too long. Is there a way to break them up?
     
    #36     May 20, 2012
  7. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    #37     May 20, 2012
  8. #38     May 20, 2012
  9. In the Cash Cow I was given a chart to trade. So I did.

    you may remember I just said:

    "I look at leading indicators of price which I trade."

    You "read" intol this the wrong things. these wrong things are already in your mind. Thus you xould not play cards with me and ever win.

    "I look at leading indicators in volume that are "Tells" of the dependent variable price which I trade.

    The market is exactly like a deck of cards. The deck has a fixed number of cards and people play with full decks.

    So in markets we had the providers of displays change the mumber of fixed kinds of elements that are part of the market's assortmentof categories. the assortment of categories corresponds to the number of different cards in a deck.

    The deck used in black jacks has just so many different cards. In four decks the number of different cards did not change.

    In trading, there are very few equivalent elements compared to cards. A deck has 52 cars and in trading there are 10 card equivalents.

    My trading deck has 10 cards and someone convinced Trade Navigator to classify the 10 car into one group of 1 another group of 1 and a group of 8. when you are trading and you see any member of the group of 8 you hold your trade.

    In 81bars of a day you know you know a lot of the time.

    blowinshki doesn't ever know on any bar what is going on, however. So he thinks that a person cannot make money over time to any extent. And to back that up he has never seen it or never understood it.

    but you can make that group of 8 work for you to get you prepared for other groups.

    It is saying "I know I know" and now I get some preparation done.

    In blackjack one order of events is going on: playing a hand.

    In timing perfect trades sevral concurrent OOE's are going on.

    Each trading bar is 300 seconds and during that time the bar unilaterally does two things. Intra-bar the bar gets finalized at some point in time as well.

    The two 1 element sets have identical charactisitcs except for one thing: their differing sentiments. The IBGS is familiar to all workers. So is WWT.

    As a person learns and has knowledge and skills he takes more and more fully the market's offer.

    ^5% a year non compounded is a 1/4% a day. In anES bar this is 1500 dollars divided by 400 of four dollars. 4 dollars is 1/3 of a tick.

    blowinski is talking the 4 dollar a day situation on a 1500 dollar contract. This is 960 dollars a year on a 1500 dollar capitalization.

    Look at some small bars. The ones that are 1/3 of a tick in 5 minutes.

    ES trading of commodities is not in Blowinski's ball park.

    Lets say I am sitting there with 40 contracts rolling and a person is looking at his watch. In his measured 9 minutes he sees a 13K change in the P&L. In 9 minutes there was a 6.5 point change. this cannot be happening. But it is 81 days of trading for Blowinski at his 1/3 of a tick daily average.

    Bars come and go and a person draws their observable boundaries.

    In a person's mind is a fully differentiated understanding of everything. He put it in his mind.

    My safe way of doing this was doing proofs by deduction just as al of us did in a class where we did proofs. Freshman year or 7th grade? what subjects? Several.

    today IT majors study RDBMS. This is the two bar look at things. 10 possible cases of two bars. 8 of them fall into one group; the wait or hold group. Relative Data Base...... Management....system.

    I have a system. It has ten relative data Base elements to manage. 8 cases fall into one group or sub set.

    so I use the math the market dictates: Boolean algebra.

    I can't make as little as Blowinski is seeing as possible in a year.

    If I build all of this by putting the pieces together I get another one pager.

    it makes a lot more than 1600% a year.
     
    #39     May 20, 2012
    Sprout likes this.
  10. Actually, I have 6.1 gigs of hershey stuff.

    It will take some time, but I will make a Youtube channel of it. Thanks again bwol for giving the idea and nkhoi for the tools.
     
    #40     May 20, 2012