A better answer to your question about peeking, T, and anyone else who asked, is the fact that there is volatility in the equity curve. Generally on intraday systems when the curve is too smooth I conclude it is peeking. We have a bit of volatility in this version which suggests there's no look ahead bias, and couple that with the fact that all of the indicators exist when you place the order, then there's no peeking involved here.
With a large number of trades I'd agree but you only have 21 trades and 20 are wins with just 1 loss (according to your 12-17-08 06:43 PM post). http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2226407#post2226407
Let's try some different testing. Get out of Futures mode and set this up: Commission 0.01/share. No Slippage. I want to see the actual trade values and I normally only use limit orders anyway. Share size 1000 shares. $500K Account. I, again, want to see all the trades. I copied your script and commented out the Short trades. I just buy SSO for the long trades. SSO 15 minute bars. My time is West Coast, but the data is the same, just add 3 hours for NY time. I get a profit of $4905 from 118 trades. 55.93% winners. Avg profit $715. Add slippage and it is a loser. This is just a few bars. ET won't show it all. Code: Position Symbol Shares Entry Date Entry Price Exit Date Exit Price % Change Net Profit Bars Held Profit/Bar Entry Signal Exit Signal Cum Profit MAE % MFE % Long SSO15 1,000 8/21/2008 7:30:00 AM 60.29 8/21/2008 10:45:00 AM 60.52 0.35 211.00 13 16.23 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,537.91 -0.89 0.73 Long SSO15 1,000 8/22/2008 9:45:00 AM 61.67 8/22/2008 12:00:00 PM 61.97 0.45 280.00 9 31.11 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,817.91 -0.16 0.94 Long SSO15 1,000 8/26/2008 9:00:00 AM 60.11 8/26/2008 12:45:00 PM 60.25 0.20 120.00 15 8.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,937.91 -1.08 0.35 Long SSO15 1,000 8/28/2008 6:30:00 AM 61.90 8/27/2008 12:45:00 PM 61.17 -1.21 -750.00 1 -750.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,187.90 0.00 0.00 Long SSO15 1,000 8/29/2008 10:30:00 AM 62.08 8/29/2008 11:45:00 AM 61.99 -0.18 -112.00 5 -22.40 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,075.90 -0.42 0.10 Long SSO15 1,000 9/3/2008 7:45:00 AM 61.05 9/3/2008 12:45:00 PM 60.65 -0.69 -420.00 20 -21.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 5,655.90 -2.18 0.02 Long SSO15 1,000 9/5/2008 9:30:00 AM 56.57 9/5/2008 12:15:00 PM 57.06 0.83 470.00 11 42.73 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,125.91 -0.32 1.75 Long SSO15 1,000 9/8/2008 11:30:00 AM 58.90 9/8/2008 12:45:00 PM 59.89 1.64 965.20 5 193.04 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 7,091.10 -0.90 1.70 Long SSO15 1,000 9/10/2008 8:45:00 AM 56.42 9/10/2008 11:00:00 AM 56.40 -0.07 -40.00 9 -4.44 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 7,051.11 -0.44 0.74 Long SSO15 1,000 9/11/2008 8:45:00 AM 56.33 9/11/2008 12:00:00 PM 56.88 0.94 531.50 13 40.88 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 7,582.61 -1.40 1.74 Long SSO15 1,000 9/11/2008 12:45:00 PM 56.98 9/11/2008 12:45:00 PM 58.08 1.90 1,080.00 1 1,080.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 8,662.61 -0.02 2.09 Long SSO15 1,000 9/12/2008 10:30:00 AM 57.70 9/12/2008 12:30:00 PM 58.23 0.88 508.00 8 63.50 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 9,170.61 -0.43 1.50 Long SSO15 1,000 9/15/2008 8:00:00 AM 56.63 9/15/2008 12:45:00 PM 53.33 -5.86 -3,320.00 19 -174.74 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 5,850.61 -6.11 0.19 Long SSO15 1,000 9/16/2008 8:00:00 AM 53.14 9/16/2008 10:30:00 AM 53.24 0.15 80.00 10 8.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 5,930.61 -2.30 1.49 Long SSO15 1,000 9/16/2008 11:45:00 AM 53.16 9/16/2008 12:30:00 PM 53.74 1.05 560.00 3 186.67 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,490.61 -0.17 3.14 Long SSO15 1,000 9/17/2008 11:30:00 AM 51.83 9/17/2008 12:00:00 PM 51.77 -0.15 -76.90 2 -38.45 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,413.71 -1.02 1.31 Long SSO15 1,000 9/18/2008 7:30:00 AM 51.29 9/18/2008 12:45:00 PM 53.15 3.59 1,840.00 21 87.62 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 8,253.71 -7.39 5.65 Long SSO15 1,000 9/23/2008 7:30:00 AM 54.74 9/23/2008 12:30:00 PM 53.51 -2.28 -1,250.00 20 -62.50 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 7,003.71 -5.35 0.38 Long SSO15 1,000 9/24/2008 10:15:00 AM 52.23 9/24/2008 11:00:00 AM 52.15 -0.19 -100.00 3 -33.33 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,903.71 -0.44 1.01 Long SSO15 1,000 9/24/2008 11:30:00 AM 52.14 9/24/2008 12:00:00 PM 51.96 -0.38 -200.00 2 -100.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,703.71 -0.44 0.92 Long SSO15 1,000 9/24/2008 12:15:00 PM 52.15 9/24/2008 12:45:00 PM 52.07 -0.19 -100.00 2 -50.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,603.71 -2.01 0.10 Long SSO15 1,000 9/25/2008 12:30:00 PM 54.33 9/25/2008 12:45:00 PM 53.91 -0.81 -440.00 1 -440.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,163.71 -1.99 0.39 Long SSO15 1,000 9/26/2008 10:00:00 AM 52.67 9/26/2008 11:00:00 AM 53.05 0.68 360.00 4 90.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 6,523.71 -0.19 1.48 Long SSO15 1,000 9/29/2008 10:30:00 AM 50.38 9/29/2008 12:45:00 PM 47.14 -6.47 -3,260.00 9 -362.22 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 3,263.71 -10.96 0.10 Long SSO15 1,000 9/30/2008 7:15:00 AM 47.79 9/30/2008 9:30:00 AM 47.34 -0.98 -470.00 9 -52.22 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 2,793.71 -1.34 0.54 Long SSO15 1,000 10/1/2008 9:30:00 AM 48.63 10/1/2008 10:15:00 AM 48.77 0.25 120.00 3 40.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 2,913.71 -0.08 1.99 Long SSO15 1,000 10/2/2008 11:15:00 AM 46.23 10/2/2008 12:45:00 PM 45.10 -2.49 -1,150.00 6 -191.67 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 1,763.71 -2.94 0.00 Long SSO15 1,000 10/6/2008 12:15:00 PM 38.83 10/6/2008 12:45:00 PM 40.98 5.49 2,130.00 2 1,065.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 3,893.70 -1.06 6.21 Long SSO15 1,000 10/8/2008 10:15:00 AM 36.16 10/8/2008 11:45:00 AM 36.36 0.50 179.00 6 29.83 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 4,072.70 -2.49 4.40 Long SSO15 1,000 10/9/2008 10:30:00 AM 34.59 10/9/2008 12:45:00 PM 30.33 -12.37 -4,280.00 9 -475.56 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here -207.30 -14.54 0.98 Long SSO15 1,000 10/10/2008 7:15:00 AM 30.01 10/10/2008 12:45:00 PM 30.37 1.13 339.70 22 15.44 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 132.40 -16.53 7.03 Long SSO15 1,000 10/13/2008 11:45:00 AM 32.93 10/13/2008 12:45:00 PM 35.74 8.49 2,795.00 4 698.75 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 2,927.40 -0.33 8.56 Long SSO15 1,000 10/14/2008 12:30:00 PM 35.18 10/14/2008 12:45:00 PM 35.16 -0.11 -40.00 1 -40.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 2,887.40 -1.53 2.13 Long SSO15 1,000 10/16/2008 9:15:00 AM 28.98 10/16/2008 12:45:00 PM 31.05 7.07 2,050.00 14 146.43 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 4,937.40 -4.00 8.07 Long SSO15 1,000 10/17/2008 12:00:00 PM 32.44 10/17/2008 12:45:00 PM 30.89 -4.83 -1,566.00 3 -522.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 3,371.40 -5.15 1.60 Long SSO15 1,000 10/20/2008 8:45:00 AM 31.98 10/20/2008 11:30:00 AM 32.53 1.66 530.00 11 48.18 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 3,901.40 -0.31 3.19 Long SSO15 1,000 10/21/2008 11:30:00 AM 33.34 10/21/2008 12:00:00 PM 33.36 0.00 -0.10 2 -0.05 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 3,901.30 -0.66 1.41 Long SSO15 1,000 10/23/2008 6:30:00 AM 28.35 10/22/2008 12:45:00 PM 28.43 0.21 60.00 1 60.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 3,961.30 0.00 0.00 Long SSO15 1,000 10/23/2008 7:15:00 AM 28.40 10/23/2008 8:30:00 AM 28.88 1.62 460.00 5 92.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 4,421.30 -2.15 4.37 Long SSO15 1,000 10/23/2008 12:15:00 PM 27.57 10/23/2008 12:45:00 PM 28.60 3.66 1,010.00 2 505.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 5,431.30 -3.88 4.46 Long SSO15 1,000 10/24/2008 8:30:00 AM 26.98 10/24/2008 12:15:00 PM 27.15 0.56 150.20 15 10.01 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 5,581.50 -5.23 3.97 Long SSO15 1,000 10/27/2008 8:15:00 AM 26.94 10/27/2008 10:15:00 AM 26.94 -0.07 -20.00 8 -2.50 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 5,561.50 -3.75 1.48 Long SSO15 1,000 10/28/2008 9:45:00 AM 25.91 10/28/2008 12:45:00 PM 30.16 16.33 4,230.00 12 352.50 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 9,791.50 -1.35 16.98 Long SSO15 1,000 10/29/2008 11:45:00 AM 30.48 10/29/2008 12:45:00 PM 29.20 -4.27 -1,300.00 4 -325.00 Jacks friend scott d says to buy here 8,491.50 -4.69 5.97 Long SSO15 1,000 10/30/2008 8:15:00 AM 30.92 10/30/2008 11:45:00 AM 30.98 0.13 40.00 14 2.86 Jacks friend scott d says t
I've posted several versions, and I can't be sure which one you got, so download this and let me know what you get on .SPX 15 minute Fidelity bars.
I got to ask you, how do you know? Not that I don't have a mind to think it's not true, but how do you know?
I wouldn't put much weight to it either, were it not for the fact that it was an extremely high win percentage. In my experience, if it keeps winning, chances are that it is close to historical norms. I'm planning on waiting to see the next 10 trades, which could take a few months.
Maybe this was curve fitted in hindsight and the whole thread where the code was "developed" is a scam. If this can't be tested on/doesn't work with other tradables, it's worthless IMO.