Backtest was from 6/15/2006. When I took it even further back it lost a lot of money to where I had to add a 3% stop to make it work. Even then it only made $8k total since 2004 on $147k. Horrible. Jack's into modifying the appearance of his scripts more than making them work. <i> I MUST DRAW A LINE!</i>

I guess I'm missing the close out EOD spot, so I'll have to come back and redo the backtests. But you want to know what I think before I do that? It's not going to help in the least bit. I think that will put it over the edge to unprofitable, even though it's already there.

Here it is with a sell on the close. It does look like the EOD exit helped results, and I probably don't need the 3% stop anymore: for Bar := 5 to BarCount - 1 do begin var SMADiff : float =(SMA( bar, #close , 20 ) - SMA( bar - 1, #close, 20 )); var MACDday : integer = MACDExSeries( #Close, val1, val2 ); if lastbar(bar) then begin lbar:=bar; end; if (bar>lbar+2) and (gettime(bar)<1600) and (@#Volume[bar]>20000) then begin if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossovervalue(bar,HersheyStochK,50)) then begin buyatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to buy here'); end; if not (lastpositionactive) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,50)) then begin shortatmarket(Bar+1,'Jacks friend scott d says to sellshort here'); end; if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]<@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossundervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,80)) then begin sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end; if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (@HersheyStochK[bar]>@HersheyStochD[bar]) and (crossovervalue(Bar,HersheyStochK,20)) then begin coveratmarket(Bar+1,lastposition,''); end; if (positionlong(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar]-SMA(Bar,HersheyStochD,6))<1.4) then begin sellatmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end; if (positionshort(lastposition)) and (abs(@HersheyStochD[bar]-SMA(Bar,HersheyStochD,6))<1.4) then begin coveratmarket(Bar+1,LastPosition,''); end; if (gettime(Bar)=1555) and positionlong(lastposition) then sellatmarket(Bar+1,#All,''); if (gettime(Bar)=1555) and positionshort(lastposition) then coveratmarket(Bar+1,#All,''); end; end;

The attachment is an exact duplicate of SCOTTD's AKA Jack Hershey TS easylanguage. It's written in WL so we have something to work with, and the script has these results, since 6/1/2006: </b>Long + Short</b> Starting Capital $147,000.00 Ending Capital $202,751.03 Net Profit $55,751.03 Net Profit % 37.93% Annualized Gain % 13.49% Exposure 0.85% Number of Trades 105 Avg Profit/Loss $530.96 Avg Bars Held 45.42 Winning Trades 43 Winning % 40.95% Gross Profit $123,744.15 Largest Winning Trades $29,588.97 Avg Profit $2,877.77 Avg Bars Held 76.26 Max Consecutive 3 Losing Trades 62 Losing % 59.05% Gross Loss ($67,993.13) Largest Losing Trade ($7,734.99) Avg Loss ($1,096.66) Avg Bars Held 24.03 Max Consecutive 5 Max Drawdown ($48,485.48) Max Drawdown Date 10/10/2008 Max Drawdown % -20.10% Max Drawdown % Date 10/10/2008 APD 19.7908 APAD 107.2647 Wealth-Lab Score 1,261.53 RAR 1,578.97 MAR 0.6711 Profit Factor 1.82 Recovery Factor 1.1498 Sharpe Ratio 0.9248 Sortino Ratio 4.845 Ulcer Index 8.3615 WL Error Term 5.174 WL Reward Ratio 2.6078 Luck Coefficient 10.2819 Pessimistic Rate of Return 1.3686 Equity Drop Ratio 0.2989 K-Ratio 0.0063 Seykota Lake Ratio 0.065 Expectancy 0.1546 Expectancy Score 3.1717 Max Losers Held 1 Max Winners Held 1 <b>Long Only</b> Starting Capital $147,000.00 Ending Capital $150,327.36 Net Profit $3,327.36 Net Profit % 2.26% Annualized Gain % 0.88% Exposure 0.10% Number of Trades 53 Avg Profit/Loss $62.78 Avg Bars Held 7.96 Winning Trades 20 Winning % 37.74% Gross Profit $32,642.91 Largest Winning Trades $9,076.52 Avg Profit $1,632.15 Avg Bars Held 12.65 Max Consecutive 3 Losing Trades 33 Losing % 62.26% Gross Loss ($29,315.55) Largest Losing Trade ($4,225.51) Avg Loss ($888.35) Avg Bars Held 5.12 Max Consecutive 5 Max Drawdown ($15,065.73) Max Drawdown Date 9/8/2008 Max Drawdown % -9.43% Max Drawdown % Date 9/8/2008 APD 3.0609 APAD 79.576 Wealth-Lab Score 815.4884 RAR 900.4178 MAR 0.0937 Profit Factor 1.1135 Recovery Factor 0.2209 Sharpe Ratio 0.2341 Sortino Ratio 9.016 Ulcer Index 2.1072 WL Error Term 1.32 WL Reward Ratio 0.6693 Luck Coefficient 5.5611 Pessimistic Rate of Return 0.7363 Equity Drop Ratio 0 K-Ratio 0.0031 Seykota Lake Ratio 0.0106 Expectancy -0.1031 Expectancy Score -2.4526 Max Losers Held 1 Max Winners Held 1 <b>Short Only</b> Starting Capital $147,000.00 Ending Capital $199,423.67 Net Profit $52,423.67 Net Profit % 35.66% Annualized Gain % 12.75% Exposure 0.78% Number of Trades 52 Avg Profit/Loss $1,008.15 Avg Bars Held 83.6 Winning Trades 23 Winning % 44.23% Gross Profit $91,101.25 Largest Winning Trades $29,588.97 Avg Profit $3,960.92 Avg Bars Held 131.57 Max Consecutive 4 Losing Trades 29 Losing % 55.77% Gross Loss ($38,677.58) Largest Losing Trade ($7,734.99) Avg Loss ($1,333.71) Avg Bars Held 45.55 Max Consecutive 6 Max Drawdown ($48,485.48) Max Drawdown Date 10/10/2008 Max Drawdown % -20.39% Max Drawdown % Date 10/10/2008 APD 30.3035 APAD 119.0599 Wealth-Lab Score 1,305.90 RAR 1,640.28 MAR 0.6256 Profit Factor 2.3554 Recovery Factor 1.0812 Sharpe Ratio 0.96 Sortino Ratio 11.775 Ulcer Index 8.5992 WL Error Term 4.562 WL Reward Ratio 2.7957 Luck Coefficient 7.4702 Pessimistic Rate of Return 1.5723 Equity Drop Ratio 0.3181 K-Ratio 0.0063 Seykota Lake Ratio 0.075 Expectancy 0.1649 Expectancy Score 1.8456 Max Losers Held 1 Max Winners Held 1 You should be able to see that Jack's Script is mostly a short script, and that his longs are ineffective at best, adding no risk adjusted value to the script.

One thing that stands out is this system is profitable with a win rate below 50%. I agree that this system is not worth the risk but it appears as though there is certainly something to work on here. Improve the weaknesses of this system and we'll probably have something pretty good.

For comparison purposes, some of my best scripts look like this. The biggest difference is how much larger the APR is compared the drawdown. Jack has failed miserably for years in creating a decent risk adjusted system. This is actually what it is supposed to look like, and, it's in the same time period with the exact same settings: Long + Short Starting Capital $147,000.00 Ending Capital $304,964.40 Net Profit $157,964.40 Net Profit % 107.46% Annualized Gain % 33.86% Exposure 3.14% Cash Interest $17,094.23 Margin Loan Interest $0.00 Total Commission ($2,238.00) DividendsPaid $0.00 Number of Trades 68 Avg Profit/Loss $2,323.01 Avg Profit/Loss % 1.17% Avg Bars Held 3.1 Winning Trades 59 Winning % 86.76% Gross Profit $212,349.44 Avg Profit $3,599.14 Avg Profit % 1.88% Avg Bars Held 2.97 Max Consecutive 14 Losing Trades 9 Losing % 13.24% Gross Loss ($71,479.27) Avg Loss ($7,942.14) Avg Loss % -3.50% Avg Bars Held 4 Max Consecutive 1 Max Drawdown ($39,348.53) Max Drawdown Date 10/9/2008 Max Drawdown % -12.81% Max Drawdown % Date 10/9/2008 Wealth-Lab Score 939.1762 RAR 1,077.15 Profit Factor 2.9708 Recovery Factor 4.0145 Payoff Ratio 0.5371 <b>Sharpe Ratio 3.9818</b> Jacks at around 1 is 4 times as risky as this particular system. Thus, why I say, when I have systems of my own that are significantly better than what Jack is putting out there, I really can be quite pessimistic. His system isn't worth the risk that it is taking, and there's much better out there. Ulcer Index 2.1978 WL Error Term 2.452 WL Reward Ratio 13.8093 Luck Coefficient 8.4729 Pessimistic Rate of Return 2.2971 Equity Drop Ratio 0.0511 I'd much rather trade this with futures than Jack's no return for the risk taken version.

I noticed that, too, and it surpised me. I can see improvement, but I don't see a way to improve it to getting APR to DD at parity. It still wouldn't be worth it on that basis.

Dare I say: Shall I optimize the MACD and curve fit? One thing Jack has always stuck to is the MACD values, both in slow stochastic and the MACD versions. I'm surprised they haven't experimented in TS, because it's much faster than WL at doing that. I guess if you've been telling people for so long, what the MAGIC BEAN Numbers are, then you can't change in the middle of it. Also, it appears there's more indicators available in the script than what I'm using, so anybody know how to use the PVAD score? or the price volume AD whatever score? He also has second derivative junk that doesn't make any sense, but I've not heard him discuss this. It appears that these functions are the "Secret Sauce", and I'll have to look here http://wl4.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/viewfamily?family=Jack Hershey Equities Method to see what they're doing with those indicators.

What'd you think the answer was? It's for sale, and I sell subscriptions to it at www.collective2.com/go/pairsqidqld Granted, I've had to improve it every now and then. That link will take you to the first two versions, and I've only recently started to use this one after the hiatus. Too bad the DD was on the first trade I tried with it, after going through another DD with the second version. Kind of the evolving aspect to the system went: static overbought oversold to volatility based overbought oversold and then to futures volatility based integration overbought oversold