Jack Hershey Method: Emergency Exit Drill

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Chicken Little, Sep 14, 2006.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. See attached.
    #11     Sep 15, 2006
  2. This illustration in this post has some incorrect annotations.
    #12     Sep 15, 2006
  3. The emergency exit drill has a lot of features.

    One of its more humourous features is something you get to see occasionally in ET. C L is a classic provider of humor to many of us here in ET.

    Naturally I love having such a person to act as a foil so points can be made.

    Here he is going through the process of demonstrating that he can't catch any signals to stay on the right side of the market.

    drawing channels ASAP and projecting them to the right is a major major way to know what is going on.

    As the future moves into the present the forming bars continually relate to the three envelopes that you maintain while trading.

    Here you get to see C L not do any annotating to speak of and secondly what he does he screws up.

    So I do not get to compliment him in any sort of way except to say that he spends what must be endless hours playing grumpy of the seven dwarfs as he reads my stuff and fails to understand it for reasons of his choosing.

    As he continues to make these kinds of choices he get to be a recalcitrent type guy who is passing up an opportunity of which he will never be aware.

    for those who feel like doing a nice mental excercise fill some pages with all the possible combination of two bars that are adjacent.

    Make the corresponding channel for each pair. Here you get to use 3 points in a very simple construct.

    so C L missed that the trendline which is always on the "right" side meaning the side your right hand is located nearest. Right is "right" in this case.

    See CL screw this up on the S2 trade.

    What did I learn from this? Lots. Hehe. What did you learn? I mean about making money.

    If a person cannot draw a trendline on a chart (like C L) then he is going to have a hard time with everything that follows from using trendlines. DBphoenix could draw trendlines BUT he would not use channels.

    C L and DB are in similar boats and they are handicapping them selves considerably.

    If a person can learn the draw a line on the right side of a set of price bars, he gets to "SEE" the direction of the market.

    If a person alternated which side he draws the reference line of a channel, like drawing long channels starting on the right and drawing short channels starting on the left, he is going to not be making too much money.

    This was logical to C L as he shows us. He has what I call "flawed logic"

    Some one calls him out on it. He refutes the person.

    Now, he gets to refute me too. We get to have a laugh. Not at his expense but just at his way of doing a drill wrongly.

    So if you want to do the drill draw grey channels starting with the trendline always on the right which is nearest to where your right hand is as you face a screen.

    As an EMT the left right thing is important with respect to the victum, especially when you do hand offs at trauma centers as a first responder or as a CERT member.

    For making money it is very important to be correct in what you are doing. further it is very well if you do a lot to get to a place where you have sufficient info to really get the job done.

    So C L hasn't run into LATERL TRENDS as yet either. We are all smiling at him.

    He hasn't grasp FTT as yet either.

    FTT is a tough one. you have to be in a dominant traverse of a trend to have an FTT when you are trend trading as a matter of fact.

    What do you need to have for traverse trading? Just two things. The ability oto draw channels and the ability to expand a channel when their is a volatility expansion.

    This is all beginner stuff.

    Say a person concludes channels do not work. It may lead him to think that there is no such thing as a trend. He could get to thinking that there is nothing that causes a channel to have a volatility expansion and never get to think what the precedent causal factor of volatility expansion is.

    whoa whoa whoa ltes slow down here and just look at how people doom themselves from makng money.

    These guys are peoiple who are always right. c L is not always right as we see. He is left on short channels as of trade S@ on his chart. He is left out.

    I play golf I am left handed. What kind of clubs do I use. Right handed clubs!!!!! I am into having the most power when I swing.

    I do not believe that an arm and hand can push a club through better then an arm and hand that can pull a club through.

    I do not switch from right handed to left handed for going up hill or going downhill on the course.

    Always make channels by starting on the side of the price movement that is closest to the future.

    hey i don't care if C L gets with the program. He can keep screwing it up in each of the wyas he is screwing it up now.

    DBphoenix was NEVER going to draw the left channel line parallel to the right channel line known as the trendline.

    Why does a person want to know the left channel line anyways?

    Well two FAV reasons come up. The FTT (maximum profit point often) and the left end of a dominant traverse (other maximum profit point) both relate to the left channel line. FTT doesn't make it and the dom trav does. seconary powerful reason: If the causal factor for volatility expansion (higher volume than before in the trending channel) is at play we can experct to have the left channel line get further from the trend line (more money made). Have you ever heard of early exits or reversals?? Hehe.

    We got this guy C L he shows he can't do any of this stuff right. what is he making as a point? It is a great point, too.
    He wants to be a mainliner at IMPROV!!!!!

    What if you knew when a tend you knew existed was coming to an end? C L is proving that emergency exits do not work FOR HIM.

    Why do we have emergency exits? So we do not lose too much money when we miss signals.

    The drill was to use the exit if you missed the signal. Lets say you want to be sure an emergency exit works. So you intentionally miss every signal. BUT you can't even draw the grey channels, though. What have you gotten out of the drill ( a partial drill of a part of a day.)? No more than before a tennis game, hitting the first can of balls once each.

    Lets say:

    1. you can draw a channel

    2. you DO draw three levels of channels.

    3. You can recognize an FTT, point 1, 2, and 3, a BO, an FBO and a possible volatility expansion of a channel.

    Then, I believe, you are way past being grumpy of the seven dwarfs.

    Lets say you are a person who misses a signal once in a while. What is the gane plan for those circumstances? For me it is on the DOM and Tick charts but that is OT.

    Do you think that you can allow yourself to miss every signal all day long? Oh sure thing. I have an emergency exit and I can use it all day long and make money (assuming you have 1, 2, and 3 above down) If you think this way you are nutso. you will be taking, as a nutso, a three point loss in the example in cluding the commissions. I do not know anyone in the world who can lose as much as three points in a part of a day by doing any trading method intentionally.

    It is very very possible that a person can be reading ET and NEVER be able to understand anything about trading that is systemmic. C L is one of those examples. A real example of a person who can contribute nothing and who, also can thoroughly demonstate, that he does understand something that he has worked very assiduously and continually prove is beyond his understanding. Moreso he actually thinks he is showing the world that something does not work as suggested.

    There is no way he can do this drill until he does not have to use the emergency exit for a whole day. He can't do anything for a whole day as a matter of fact. Its time to have a laugh.
    #13     Sep 15, 2006
  4. By the way I am "Grobbing" this thread.
    #14     Sep 15, 2006
  5. All of the actions in my correction chart were at market.

    I can't correct the second one from C L because he screwed up the attachment. The price column is CL'ed as we say.
    #15     Sep 15, 2006
  6. C L is posting his performance elsewhere. Where he does not use anything from SCT trading.

    See the following print from JUNE that he posted today to prove something or other:


    It shows 10 trades and he says he made 8 points.

    The following groups the trades and I point out the differences between what he did for the record and what may be considered a better approach.

    Don't trade premarket (3 actions in whipsaw) Wait for market to synch on high volume.

    Doesn't hold through the whole price movement (Reversal at bar12 and move eneded bar 21 This mean't being upsidedown by 50% of days net) Had he done this his net would have doubled since he could have reversed at the end of the trend.

    He did add to contracts at the time of his greatest drawdown as a way to play catch up ball. This means that he only traded 1/3 of his funds for the entire day except when he was most up side down because he held for 4 and 1/2 point draw down before he added twice the contractshe was using regularly. This is a very risky way to save your ass in trading. He took a loss of 3.1 points after about 75 minutes of being upside down. I used FIFO to calc this) When he was into this 45 minute seige he tripled down when he was 4 1/2 points upside down. He made 1.25 points on the tripling down additional scaling. three times the losses to the profit. Not too good and it cost him doubling his profits for the day. This involved all the bars from bar12 to bar 27.

    Between bars 4 and 12 he was paralleling SCT trading at a 50% level.

    SCT uses an alternative to staying on the right side of the market and making money as it appears segment by segment.

    After bar 27 there were trades on bars 28 and 29 during the midday congestion. SCT trades bar by bar during this time period as well.

    The H-L range for the day was 9.1 as shown by values in the print. It could have been more but not less.

    9.0 points were left on the table by executions at a 1 contract table. By tripling down when the market has gone against you 4.5 points is very unusual.

    Had he been trading three contracts up to the point where the market went against him, then he would have had 21 points in the bag by 10:29 in the morning.

    Had he at the point where he stayed on the right side of the market simply washed then by using three contracts he could have picked up another 30 points by bar 27 and anther 8. 25 points by the end of his trading print.

    This is a total of about 60 points on three contracts in a daily H-L of 9.1 points. I conclude that C L is operating at an effeciency and effectiveness of something just over 15%.

    The SCT rules that improves trading from this level to the next include:

    1. Draw channels. This keeps you on the right side of the market and keeps you in trades throughout their duration and you will not be holding while upsidedown at any time. Reverse on any FTT that you see in the projection and volatility expansion of the channel.

    2. Do wash trades when you are not making money.

    3. Stay on the sidelines when the market is not operating.

    4. Do not ever trade more than one contract until you have doubled your initial capital.

    5. use the emergency exit when you miss an action signal

    These rules preclude trading three contracts for C L. The only effect of his using them was that, mentally he was able to take the big time loss he had in his original contract. He sat with all three contracts not making money for over 1/2 hour before he was able to take the loss. Then 26 seconds later he was able to take an action to get on the right side of the market with his remaining contract still in the market.

    This must have been a harrowing 1 hour and 15 minutes for him .
    #16     Sep 17, 2006
  7. yes that's all nice and cuddly but it is still all talk and talk is pretty cheap in this contest since u are confronted with real results; post somethin' that backs up your better method achievin' more points for that day or dont post at all.
    #17     Sep 17, 2006
  8. slacker


    6. Wait until the move is confirmed to draw your channels. Or better yet, wait till the market is closed altogether, then draw your channels and count your pretend money.
    #18     Sep 17, 2006
  9. You guys seem to be making a point.

    A few of us here have said that what we do and how we do it is not affected by posting prints.

    Does my not wanting to read Nitro type bullshit after I post a print mean anything. I can get your bullshit just as easily by not posting a print. Savvy?

    A moderator explained to me before he deleted the post he was referring to that I am obligated to post prints if I want to have a journal. I have had the Nitro tretments and so have others who trade as I do. We are just going to proceed as we have been.

    Who needs the carping of the detractors on ET?

    That print says a lot about the trader. He posted it and I commented in the thread he started as his forum for doing what he does.

    he screwed up the drill and he screwed up a good trading day by getting upsidedown 4 1/2 points by not staying in a trade when he reversed too soon. Then he triple contracts and sits a half hour before he takes his loss.

    You think he is hot stuff, I don't. you think i should subject myself to the "fake print" bullshit of Nitro and you guys. Hey No Thank You.

    #19     Sep 17, 2006
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.