Easy. I haven't attempted to trade it lately because the correlation between oil and NQ is uncorrelated. But it would have worked this morning premarket. If you had the nerve to trade it with the spread over one tick and the volume one share per breath. Probably simply a Hershey-like random event.
Supporting 666, backtesting, like being shot at, marvelously clarifies the mind. Forcing yourself to write explicit algorithms for what you think you see happening dissipates many a theory.
Some live trading results for the beginner rockets with the following considerations: using 5 minute bars per BRd (beginners rockets document) MACD >= .40 for longs & <= -.40 for shorts STOCH %k >= .80 and %d >= .80 for entry Volume >= 10,000 non prorated exit when STOCH %k goes below .80 executed on the Tick that all conditions are met. I recorded all the criteria on a tick by tick basis listed below. The bold lines indicate the first tick all conditions for entry or exit are met. DATE TIME MACD D K VOL LAST BID ASK 1060531.00 935.00 0.89 86.11 100.00 9993.00 1269.00 1268.75 1269.00 1060531.00 935.00 0.89 86.11 100.00 9996.00 1269.00 1268.75 1269.00 1060531.00 935.00 0.89 86.11 100.00 9996.00 1269.00 1268.75 1269.00 1060531.00 935.00 0.89 86.11 100.00 10050.00 1269.00 1268.75 1269.00 1060531.00 935.00 0.89 86.11 100.00 10104.00 1269.00 1268.75 1269.00 1060531.00 935.00 0.89 86.11 100.00 10104.00 1269.00 1268.75 1269.00 1060531.00 935.00 0.89 86.11 100.00 10104.00 1269.00 1268.75 1269.00 entry 1269.00 1060531.00 945.00 1.66 87.88 82.14 5089.00 1270.50 1270.25 1270.50 1060531.00 945.00 1.66 87.88 82.14 5089.00 1270.50 1270.25 1270.50 1060531.00 945.00 1.66 87.88 82.14 5090.00 1270.50 1270.25 1270.50 1060531.00 945.00 1.66 87.88 82.14 5090.00 1270.50 1270.25 1270.50 1060531.00 945.00 1.66 86.69 78.57 5100.00 1270.25 1270.25 1270.50 1060531.00 945.00 1.66 86.69 78.57 5105.00 1270.25 1270.25 1270.50 1060531.00 945.00 1.66 86.69 78.57 5106.00 1270.25 1270.25 1270.50 1060531.00 945.00 1.66 86.69 78.57 5107.00 1270.25 1270.25 1270.50exit 1270.25 +1.25 1060531.00 950.00 1.79 83.91 92.86 9894.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 950.00 1.79 83.91 92.86 9894.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 950.00 1.79 83.91 92.86 9952.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 950.00 1.79 83.91 92.86 9952.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 950.00 1.79 83.91 92.86 10063.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 950.00 1.79 83.91 92.86 10065.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 950.00 1.79 83.91 92.86 10065.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 entry 1271.25 1060531.00 1000.00 1.63 84.89 82.76 4869.00 1270.75 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.63 84.89 82.76 4870.00 1270.75 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.63 84.89 82.76 4870.00 1270.75 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.63 84.89 82.76 4870.00 1270.75 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.63 83.74 79.31 4871.00 1270.50 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.58 83.74 79.31 4871.00 1270.50 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.58 84.89 82.76 4873.00 1270.75 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.58 84.89 82.76 4891.00 1270.75 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.63 84.89 82.76 4891.00 1270.75 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.63 84.89 82.76 4891.00 1270.75 1270.50 1270.75 1060531.00 1000.00 1.63 83.74 79.31 4892.00 1270.50 1270.50 1270.75 exit 1270.50-.75 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 9789.00 1271.00 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 9790.00 1271.00 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 9790.00 1271.00 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 87.73 84.62 9810.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1035.00 0.93 87.73 84.62 9810.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1035.00 0.93 87.73 84.62 10135.00 1271.25 1271.25 1271.50 1060531.00 1035.00 0.93 87.73 84.62 10136.00 1271.25 1271.25 1271.50 1060531.00 1035.00 0.93 87.73 84.62 10136.00 1271.25 1271.25 1271.50 entry 1271.50 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 11692.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 11746.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 11751.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 87.73 84.62 11759.00 1271.25 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 85.16 76.92 11760.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 85.16 76.92 11762.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 85.16 76.92 11763.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 85.16 76.92 11763.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 85.16 76.92 11763.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 exit 1270.75-.75 Oscillating signals in this data set 1060531.00 1035.00 0.84 85.16 76.92 12743.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.84 86.45 80.77 12745.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 entry 1060531.00 1035.00 0.84 86.45 80.77 12746.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 12746.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 12746.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 85.16 76.92 12756.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 exit 1060531.00 1035.00 0.84 85.16 76.92 12756.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.84 86.45 80.77 12759.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 entry 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 12759.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 85.16 76.92 12760.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 exit 1060531.00 1035.00 0.84 85.16 76.92 12760.00 1270.75 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.84 86.45 80.77 12761.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 entry 1271.00 entry 1060531.00 1035.00 0.84 86.45 80.77 12840.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.88 86.45 80.77 12840.00 1271.00 1270.75 1271.00 1060531.00 1035.00 0.93 87.73 84.62 13776.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1035.00 0.93 87.73 84.62 13776.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1035.00 0.93 87.73 84.62 13776.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1040.00 0.93 87.88 82.61 3.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1040.00 0.87 87.88 82.61 3.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1040.00 0.87 86.43 78.26 5.00 1271.00 1271.00 1271.25 exit 1060531.00 1040.00 0.82 86.43 78.26 5.00 1271.00 1271.00 1271.25 1060531.00 1040.00 0.82 87.88 82.61 6.00 1271.25 1271.00 1271.25 exit 1271.00 +0 raw data attached edit :raw data too large
True. But like any tool, backtesting is only as good as the practitioner e.g., an amateur will use optimization to curve fit his system to the data, but a knowledgeable trader will use it to analyze the quality of degrees of freedom spent by his system.
The true test of a system IMO is whether or not it has positive expectancy including commission and slippage with NO optimization. And to prove what a fool I am, I will reveal that I have never optimized ANY two-criteria systems which proved to be other than flukes. In other words, as Jack likes to say but does not do, KISS.
with respect to the ES yesterday. Here is a summary. 15 actions for 36 net points where the best net would have been 32 points. There was little sweeping required beyond coarse with the exception of using 2 pairs at the limits of turns. There was one formation sequence on the entire day. It began after the fast pace of the market ended. This is a drop from 4 point type trades to 2 point trades during formations.. the sequence of formations was: SYM pennant>BO>FBO>trending. The CCC ended with a bracket trade and the PM BO turned into a FBO followed by another Bracket entry. THe only wash of the day occrred here (and the wash was a reversal that led to the 4 points between 32 and 36 which would not have occurred if the wash were not required) The signals for both brackets were the usual VDU. I used an asymmetric bracket at the end of the CCC. I logged only three rockets. First signal was at top of bar 2. See pre flight channel being terminated (long showing before open) so 2 pair on top of bar 2 dictated rocket entry. Second was on a bracket entry midday. Third was next to last action of day. General comment. There are a couple of themes running in the OP's thread. The OP wishes, primarily to stunt and terminate each and every thing he has gloomed onto. That is an interesting mission. and it will have some consequences. The greatest of which will be that he will be unable to learn after a while. Not being able to learn is a high price to pay. 666, on the other hand, is in a court room he calls ET. What is the case he is going to win? It is the record of JTH that he feels is a presentation of stuff that is not in the best interests of he public as measured by the tests he uses. He is making money from fees in his court room. The court room and the fees aren't real in any way. He gets to not learn either. The learning possibility is not a requirement for anything at all. There is no one forcing or suggesting that anyone learn anything from what I do. Both of these people have needs or just wants to do what they do. They probably are helping many people who are in the same boat they are in. My opinion is that getting in the boat is a bad idea and being helped their way(this is what the people in the boat want) is also a bad consequence. What are the alternatives. My theme is an alternative. I am dealing with making money. I deal with making money as a process that involves acquiring knowledge skills and experience. I do not run a court room as a lawyer and I do not spend any time beating to death anyone elses's systems of making money. Rockets represent an opportunity for people to learn under a no risk situation. The delayed entry into a fast paced moving market is a good place to begin. The mechanical exit is helpful too. There is no such thing as no risk for some people. Entering a fast paced market after it has commenced is still not a no risk trade for these people. On a risk map for markets, the rocket is the place to begin is the point I am making and the point is either made or not. The most noticable and nagging and anxiety building aspect of rockets is how the screen displays stuff that disappears and returns over and over again. It requires the novice beginner to see stuff and have feelings. A lot of baggage comes into play while dealing with a rocket as we all see. It does not go away. It may even dominate the situation. I do rockets as a no risk trade where price is in a channel and each bar fills the channel. The set of signals for all of this is posted ad nausem at this point. The combination of all of these things is the picture for manually learning about the market, for developing skills and for having experience. They are what I created and someone else invented before me and as yet unknown to me. The other person's stuff has not been posted as yet. The general comment on finding historical channels is to slow down the fractal until any trend is a rocket in that fractal. What if a person does some rockets over time. I feel that, then, they are ready to learn about other places on the risk map. In ET, this approach only proceeds when and if possible. This thread is not about making money and learning. Both are OT here. This thread is about "validating" something that then becomes a standard against which to test "rockets" being traded manually. The court room part is moving to "you keep changing the rocket rules and nuances". So the verdict is JTH is an asshole or retart or bullshitter. There is kind of an amateur contest sanctioned by Barron, et al, going on here to use me and my stuff as a traget for the contest. The winners in all the categories Barron is now running all over the place have been upping their efforts to make ET more and more of what it is becoming. I hope that it is very clear to a lot of people that a lot of people are making money using this stuff and more and more stuff is being provided.
Ah, Jack, if it is so easy, call it in real time. I know it can be done here unambiguously because I have done it. But it's sweaty, and few people like to break a sweat in public.
A beginner has to start somewhere. Grob posted a document called beginner rockets. I am going through that document to see the effects of trading as it suggests. Various problems and opportunities come up as a result of following it. This thread is nothing more than taking the first step using the beginner rockets document. If that document is not a good place to start then what is ( a good place to start)?
I remember a few weeks ago you posted some results of about $3,000 and said it was just another day. If you have something that is working that well why are you even messing with this stuff?