Jack Hershey Method: Beginner Rockets

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Chicken Little, May 26, 2006.

  1. A former member of the B-Team, now deceased, named John Merchant, posted a profitable non-Hershey method in detail. With trade confirmations. And clear step-by-step entry and exit rules. And on occasion I have condescended to post trades in regimes undreamt of by the A-Team. But these are all but pitiful scalps of a mere few ticks, unworthy of the 3X daily range traders.
     
    #51     May 31, 2006
  2. LOL it's called a TYPO, but you would not have any of those, as you have never posted a single post that had anything to do with trading...I don't know why people like you even come to forums like this.

    You are a great example of why ET should charge a fee.
     
    #52     May 31, 2006
  3. They have no proof, because they do not trade.:confused: :(
     
    #53     May 31, 2006
  4. Yeah, that was quite a system John, er hypo. Is anybody using it? There are a lot of people out there who would be satisfied with a few ticks a day.
     
    #54     May 31, 2006
  5. Actually, the best way to handle these folks is to put them on ignore, silly me:D
     
    #55     May 31, 2006
  6. Troll magnet? You bring opposing views on yourself by pretending to dismiss valid concepts out of wisdom, when in fact you do it out of ignorance. Take backtesting. Your posts shed light on why you're so against it. Because you don't understand it at all, therefore you failed spectacularly trying to apply it. Here are a few of your gems from the System Development thread where you also represented yourself as an expert:

    "I contend that probability of success on any trade is 33.33%. So if a system tests for between 31 and 35% probability, regardless of market condition, it is robust." See this gem here.

    Someone asked you why, to which you replied: "Up 33% of the time, sideways 33% of the time and down 33% of the time. If you use a large enough data set, you will see that this tends to be the case +/- a standard deviation." See this gem here. There are plenty more.

    No wonder you need a guru and no wonder you decided to use your colossal intellect to pursue subjective, discretionary voodoo where you can fly by the seat of your pants.
     
    #56     May 31, 2006
  7. Jack and the A Team BEG for those demands by constantly making wild, unsubstantiated claims of trading prowess while offering no proof, other than the claims themselves. No claims = no validation demands.
     
    #57     May 31, 2006
  8. Here is a rough answer and an attachment.

    Work with a universe and fill in the IAS. This will give you a % per day of profits during your holds.

    In the universe after you have manually completed the IAS, you are in a mental position to understand the nature of each stock's preformance potential. This means that you can judge the fractal on which the rockets may occur.

    For practical purposes, it is best to trade to make money, primarily. I strongly recommend a routine of doing prep for a given day the evening before. The DAS is the clue for this because manually, you work across the page building pictures in such a way that you, by the last column can do the third step of the four part routine as a consequence of having done separate mental processes for monitoring and analysis previously.

    Rockets are common as beginnings of trading cycles. They make good money.

    If you have reached a stage where you are in the groove, then you probably do not go to a job elsewhere and you are monitoring during the day. In this case, the standard channel work from the weekly, daily and 30 minute have more significance since annotations can be done during market hours. This gives a better ROI for a few reasons.

    You have the ability to trade during the day counts for a good improvement in performance. Not trading during the day is not a concern at all, either.

    The key point of making money comes once a person understands the power of being effective and efficient. This is not easy to get to largely because of what is thraditionally instilled in most people regarding how trading works. Most people see trading as an entry and exit that is handled with a givn instrument and all being done indepentantly.

    When a person turns to consider making money things change. The key becomes having capital available for fulfilling opportunities that arise in a very timely manner. This means having an strategy to make capital available from the least performing instrument(s) and being able to apply capital to flawless potential instruments as they come upon the horizon.

    Rockets are important here in this venue.

    The IAS sets the scene and the DAS gets the decision made the evening before. Ripe owned stocks are labelled for conversion to cash and Hot list stocks (rockets noted) are earmarked for entry. One list has declining money velocity and the potential stocks will have high money velocities as they soon BO as rockets.

    The time of BO relative to the final signal you have received is about a 1 hour gap in time and it occurs during a narrow time range in the day. This means that you can handle all of this casually and without haste or trauma.

    It is a case of being in a money making situation where you are always making money with all of your capital and the range of money velocity in the various streams are values commonly found on the ranks of your IAS sheets. This is just a matter of fact and is observable daily by having the universe listed on a platform that gives you the sorted list throughout the day. The sort is done by differentiating the ammount of cummulative volume of the day as a percent of a standard volume. the owned list and the Hot list are sorted similarly and give you a continuing comparison.

    Thus, volume as a leading indicator of price, provides the signal in advance of price lift off. The nominal gap of 1 hour is normal.

    Here you have rank giving you the BO money velocity on the lift off (rockets are common and known in advance) and you have time to compare things with "owned" stocks that are the source of capital.

    A switch is going to be made.

    As you read this, you may find that your personal feelings regarding this are in a place within a whole range of possibilities. You might write down this continuum. I am at the end of the line and I am there based upon a lot of considerations.

    When you are trading all of your capital in streams with a highly filter universe that is extremely reliable and repeatable and you have already traded each stock on the list that you use several times in the recent past, THEN you get further along the line.

    When you have worked with people for about 45 years and seen many really change everything in their worlds as a consequence you get nedged further along the line.

    Another nudge comes from working very hard to come up with many many tools to make things more and more workable.

    There is no place along the line for people who are not knowledgeble, skilled or experienced.

    My conclusions from where I am are as follows. By knowing the scoope and bounds of possibilities, you get to "practice" in that world. Seeing it work time after time after time builds experience which builds skills which builds knowledge. This is the order of acquisition.

    So I am attaching a chart for monitoring this stuff you ask about. The chart was manifested as a response to a related question.

    You see DU, FRV and Peak columns on the chart. They come from seeing how volume relates to price and how making money works. The series of values in the column are calibrated to how it all works during each day. The standard of volume that is available is what I had to work with. Software is always years behind what is required so we make do.

    In addition to the chart there is a general picture of daily volume distribution. colors are added to make it easier to use according to the "one liners" that describe the daily and cyclic occurrances. The chart is a result of work in monitoring over a very long period of time.
     
    #58     May 31, 2006
  9. 666

    I have to admit I am somewhat awed by your dedicaton. To go back and read Jacks posts and everone's connected with him is a monumental task. If this is how you wish to spend your time then, I for one, say, have at it.
     
    #59     May 31, 2006
  10. Beware this one:

    "volume as a leading indicator of price"

    Totally unsubstantiated by the tape.
     
    #60     May 31, 2006