This post may help some people out. I'll use Gerry's comments and mental state as a basis. I have been given some extrodinary and excellent advice from others about how to manage to time I have left. Within last year or so, my psychiatrist (and shawman) was able to convince me to not schedule and to give up making an effort to complete 10 projects I had written inside the cover of "megatrends" when it was first published; I was at EOP then. Others suggested that I engage with the public to transfer what I knew. I had done this previously at other US locations. The Tucson IBD MeetUp was chosen for monthly meetings. The 42 chapter book you think is a prioity for me, which was outlined and files set up for processing, was postponed several times over 20 years. About 5,000 pages are done in one format or another. I got more advice as meetings went ahead. 1. Meet every two weeks. 2. Shorten from 9:00pm ending to 8m ending so I wouldn't be so tired for next couple of days. 3. Guests could fly in for bacground/contributions of specific flavors. 3a. Plan a residential center for team and others to carry on stuff. 4. Topical handouts of agreed upon topics would back up the meeting themes 120 to 150 pages every meeting. 5. Plan for 2006. Go to cash by year end (2005); in 2006 maximize the appreciation of capital all year long. All meeting subtend this goal. 6. Subgroups meet weekly on their own. 7. People call me to meet for 4 hour shots at their location (with guests) so their machines can be set up and market operations can be done. 8. Videos of everything were requested (see I through 4) and drills were to be included (first set of 6 for making the brain fitter) 9. All vidieos transribed within a couple of days and illustrations added and editing team would rework from word to pdf's so all would be professional 10. Yahoo website would be used for xfer of stuff. 11. three web sites needed to replace yahoo. 12. Temporary sites for xfer by teams of handout people. 13. Set up design and build crews for web sites and get larger server capacities. 14. Foundation will personally clear all registrants to determine that they suggest that they are doing the three needed requirements. 15. Fly in preplanners of everything 16 Do visits (daily) to those doing the transference. Go to am trading starting in June. Make regular videos and canstasias simultaneously so that a "production" can be used to "can" the result. 17 Add 25 writers after the JUN web team meeting. SW will be style guide. 18 FAQ's team will work from ET data base. Try to complete before I cannot participate any longer. Summary Gerry type thinking isn't appropriate. We can see that not many people can find books written in the past. That type of research isn't a possible way to get market knowledge or any knowledge corralled and made usable. At this point a very fast track is needed to get closure on the packages. Gerry is our model of a typical subject of the Village Idiot prevention team. Two themes: position and SCT six levels of competence 10 sectors of consideration. These 60 cells each will have three prongs each leading to four elements. This is 1440 cells where any search will begin one of two parallel processes: obtained archived information or beginning to follow a path in a process to learn to make money. Thus the "book" appears to be either and archive or a path. the "fillings" are in toe form of douments, cantasias or vidoes of work sessions held by people trading or otherwise. All have the characterisitcs that they will have drills attached to them so a person can build in his mind that which is required. for convenience a coded mechanical version of both themes will be available and constantly improved. The other two thirds offer more. ET will be duplicated in an different orientation. three parts: learning in the 1440 cells as grouped topically and run by moderators who are knowledgable; non standard topics introduced by "associates" whose topics were approaved and where the associate is the maderator; Journals of persons who are presenting their track record over time. this site also has all the backup reanging from FAQ's Glossary, other track recordes, evaluations done by third parties and a set lof linkages to 9 other trading methoeds that are comparded and contrasted in the archive/path site. the archive path site also has a xover matrix for these 10 methods so that a person can xover into ohter two methods for any purpose desired. The third site is philantropic and is mostly run by the foundation. Here all examples of the commitment of the associates will be maintained. One third of this will be the support system that will be afforded those who are running groups remote from Tucson. gerry continues to exhibit a sort of half baked theme of what isn't as he sees it. Others react to what they see as us begging for attention with their requests to do contests and/or backtesting examples. We found that our stuff and posts are not good enough for them. Lately, the current threads created by these people are derated to chit chat over and over and they are closed as well. Obviously the future for us will include as little as possible of these types of people. You guys will have to be content with reading books you mutually admire and comparing your bactesting of your own methods. Learning is a process not carried out in chitchat where the moderators place village idiots. Archives are not found in books; nor is "process" learning. ET has no archiving power. Conducting standard and individual discussions on topics is not possible in an admosphere that is produced by detractors and "takers"; givers are so few in ET as it changes to mostly support detractors. Playing the "superficiality and surface" game is fun but quite repetitious at this point. Even ET is now taking laps as compared to most boards. Gerry passed up this opportunity; so have many others. That is fine and as it should be. They can go on their ways to other places. This is an example of the "long tail" and its global beginnings. A lot of people will be emerging from this enterprize and they will join many others who preceeded them.
IMHO, the discussion is very much related to Jack. I don't think that the average poster should be subjected to this, but given the unbelievable output on ET by Jack over the years merits some inquiry as to the soundness of the fuzzy hodgepodge being peddled.
Easyrider - I guess you're leaving ET. Well, I want to thank you for your helpful posts. Good luck with your surgery and I hope you have a speedy recovery. And I wish you continued success with your trading. Takcare. If a website is being set up about the JH method can someone please pm me the link - I do find the guy and his methods very interesting.
Backtesting is fine if you are satisfied with statistical results. I don't find statistics or probabilities useful in MY trading though. If you find it useful . . . rock on. I love that you think, that which you have no experience in is ignorant, especially since it is directed at someone that has that exact experience. Realtime testing has no limits as long as it is done over a long period of time and was done in a strict "rules based" environment. I understand it is slow but nothing rushed is worth anything. I personally have been realtime testing a system since 95' and it breezed through both long and short term Bull & Bear trends in numerous markets. Most individuals don't have that kind of patience . . . I do. "There is no royal road to anything. One thing at a time, all things in succession. That which grows fast, withers as rapidly, that which grows slowly, endures." [Josiah Gilbert Holland]
Better get your facts straight for a start before you throw that liable around. That statement by the individual was retracted after he contacted the academic supervisor. The original poster never bother to contact the correct department. Proof of what, sitting around shooting the breeze with a group of people on a rainy afternoon in Switzerland. Who are you to ask, the "conversation Nazi"? Here's a website for you: http://www.isn.ethz.ch In regards to Ph.D's . . . I agree . . . they are highly overrated. Nothing compares with practical experience. That is something we can truly agree on.
Not what I said... but speaking of ignorant, you have no idea what I do and do not have experience with.
In an earlier post you wrote: "I had the pleasure of sitting with a bunch of European researchers lately and they all were unanimously of the same mindset . . . backtesting offers only limited usefulness." So I was basically saying, who cares what they think? And what have they done with all their wisdom? Renaissance uses it all the time with great success.