Pad and call thanks for your posts and attachments. I agree that this is the messy period. That is just fine. The comments you made of a debriefing nature are priceless as the advertizement says. It is really great to get the that first day when you are figuring out how to pragmatically improve your MADA. Now we get a chance to also look at the timing of trades on bars. Do it when you feel like it just to not invoke any detaily type rules. As you can see, the row above the row you are completing offers an opportunity to see the dynamic of the symbols you enter. The ACTION column is important so try to use ONE letter symbols except for enter and exit, use ENT and EX or X for those if you wish. By doing each cell of each row you are set up for the next row and most important the opportunity to compare the above row with what you are writing in that you already figured out. I tried to take a close look at the time from 12:05 to 13:20 and I had a tussle since there is no bar count on your chart nor any time notations. Fix that please so you can rip through your debriefing with the chart print, the four log pages and your P&L. Naturally we would all like to have platforms where we could clone vertical lines from top to bottom. we would like little scripts here and there to let us fill in the rows as the bar is forming (PRV does that for example). You filled in digonal lines as symbols. Use a curled arrow to show peaks and valleys from now on. Put an INT or name the internal pattern that is within the channels from now on. There are a lot of these for H and W periods of the day. Just to begin to rough out how bars work, take the time to figure out which ends of bars are best for various actions. Also take a glance at whether opens or closes are best for some parts of the action column. By doing this you can put the LENGTH of the bar on yourside instead of the other side. Gradually, we are going to develop a way to transport ourselves a little ways into the future. It is like having the ability to fill in the rows ahead of time so that we can HIT T when the best moment from the future we know about moves into the present. Simulators thus can be replaced with logs and time stamps when we hit T. We are going to be hitting T about 7 to 15 times a day. Lets look at where we get the future from. We will be getting it from two signals as applied to the YM on a two minute chart. There is often a little debate as to whether the YM leads ES or whether using a 2 minute chart on YM makes it lead the ES. As a theologan would, I chose the one God chooses. Both work out in our favor, however. By moving our seats ahead of NOW, we are better prepared for NOW and especially for using using the correct ends of bars and choosing between open and close values on bars to our advantage (here thee is about a 5 minute variation to consider). On simulators we would chose the "make more money setting" if there were one. So begin to note when you (yourself for real) are hitting T. Note the bar, the time and the price on the right side of the log. If you have free time at any time you can tab chips. You, from now on, can invoke the "wash trade" option and go to the sidelines to await the next vertical bar. This is good "hit T" exercise. You cannot, however, ever invoke a reverse whim. No reverse whimsy. Most of this post is putting bar length on the table. we trade at market and this only means, at max, giving up the one tick spread. Currently, I see some 2 point type losses being incurred by something, not you, attached to your machines. We are simply looking at putting the each favorable bar's length in the trades we have on instead of leaving them out of the trade and part of our sideline bars. It is easy to see that using the YM column and anotating the chart almost completes the transition from being in the grandstands to fully imposing on your radial glial fibers to transport all new neurons from the ventricular zone up the flag poles to your cortical surface. If your head itches then get some Selsin Blue or head and shoulders (named after a financial pattern). This was an excellent day because being messy has begun.
I tried to attach a jpg file of our trip and I had annotated a page or so of what was going on . The file was rejected as too big and the commentary disappeared. Too bad. I do not have a solution but I understand that this forum has technical limitations for some reason; bandwidth costs probably.
I wanted to start doing some background reading on Connors Hayward volatility compression to have a little deeper understanding of it when Jack introduces it. It looks like most of it is in German, and mine is very rusty. If I translated it right, here is what I found. Perhaps others that are more fluent will have greater insight: "Historic volatility is defined as the standard deviation of daily price changes, as a percentage over a year. Simply put, they are the level of price fluctuations in a given time period, a year in this example. ... We use the historical volatility levels to prepare for large movements in equities and futures. Our investigations have shown that whenever a 10-day historical volatility is half or less than its 100-day historical volatility, a large movement in this market is imminent."
background reading on Connors Hayward volatility compression Try: "Investment Secrets of a Hedgefund Manager" L. A. Connors and B. E. Hayward. Also Natenburg's book. HTH lj
Hi Jack, thanks for the comments. I've read them over several times. Whenever I have a big post, I just do a "Ctrl A" and "copy" as insurance before trying to send. Of course, you're pretty prolific with your posts on this site, so that can be a lot of insurance (and time), but it may help with the big posts. Was your antarctic journey a vacation or also related to the pollution study? Sorry, callmate, if this is OT. I'm sure Jack can make it all relate to trading. lol