Where's the proof, if I may ask? I happen to believe it's possible for the individual trader to become wealthy through day trading, but I also believe that only a select few will be able to put together what it takes to accomplish that. So, relatively speaking, I don't think many traders do well with short-term trading over time. Long term investing on the other hand is something most people can succeed with assuming a minimum level of intelligence and patience.
Mr Bogel is more right than wrong. The secret to investing is time. I can take any 20 something and guarantee they would be a millionaire just by dollar cost averaging into a blue chip index. Think about it. Over 40 years you put money in the market every month, no matter what the market is "doing". Most people don't have the discipline to do that. We want to make a killing...NOW, especially if you're in your 20's or 30's.
My kids are investing for their kids future. I have them 100% in Vanguard Total Stock Market. I tell them, just keeping buying every month. When we get that correction everybody is predicting buy all the way down, and you will be the only one who bought at the very bottom. Sometimes they complain, I tell them, Check your portfolio every year on your birthday.
I so agree- and you are guiding your children well in staying the course- and perhaps most importantly to start early in life! investing monthly! Compounding over time will make them wealthy- starting early and-contributing at regular increments- You dollar cost average in at highs and lows- but in the end capture the total return. When their account value reaches 50k-Consider handing it over to the Vanguard Advisor service- presently just a .30 Exp. ratio for diversified investments allocation and automatic rebalancing- This potentially would add the gain of an area of outperformance contributing to the net port value through rebalancing. Worth their consideration- down the road- Unfortunately, I was personally somewhat late in life to grasp the need to invest for myself for the long term- I think this happens to the majority of us- Life happens- kids arrive- You want to live a bit better as you make more money-Standard of living improves- Get raises at the job- House, car, larger house- More kids- college tuition- maybe a family vacation-summer house at the beach- or just a week of rental? The family benefits from the advances we obtain as we go through life - but did we take any time to consider the day the music slows? The sad truth is- We live life as though we will always maintain the status quo-and expect the future will be better- but there comes a day- We get taken by surprise- A company merger- a change in technology- or an outright sell-off - We planned to someday get around to the investing stuff- .... but other stuff becomes a larger priority. Kudos to your communicating the importance of acting with an eye to the long term for your children- and their children. Few here will understand the value of what you have tried to convey to your family- Investing is a concept that most-interested or focused on trading would likely seem to be antiquated. The trading audience is likely a younger group- and has decades ahead to make their millions and a consistent investment approach likely does not enter their reality- Why bother investing when trading will yield such larger gains.......Greeks called that HUBRIS I think back when..... This is likely a human condition- ego - where we think we are not just "average'- but Bogle points out that - in the end- we are all "average". The man has a lot of wisdom to share- For those of us that think we are the exception- we likely are not - May just have had a lucky trade or two over the short term. I think that your advice to your children is 'right on" - I also think the majority of the readers on ET will miss your point and prefer to find success in the short term trading approach, forgetting altogether that there is a "longer term" game to be involved in. Just saying.......
Aside from the fact that one cannot judge "market tone" without knowing the overall sentiment, there's always this site: http://www.chartgame.com
ok, but just remember, everything I have over at Vanguard is the result of trading, and those kids were raised on swiss francs and cattle futures
Most people cannot beat the S&P500 because the benchmark itself is "managed", its rigged to move higher over time. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...t-s-tough-to-beat-the-s-p-500-and-this-is-why
For those few who win its certainly not pointless but on average he is probably right. He has made lots of money from indexing but its probably more useful for the average folks than how most finance people spend their days.