Just thought I might post this setup... I think there will be one more push... Uploaded with ImageShack.us
So, how do you trade it? Go long now with a stop under the second higher low? The first? If you got in now and the market moved up , would you trail your stop as it approached a new high, in case it failed to make one? If it did make a new high, would you sell it immediately or wait to see just how high it could go? Also, that set-up actually looks more like a short than a long. If you look very closely, you'll see why. Set-ups are all well and good, but you need a plan to trade it, too.
Its not that hard to trade. If price is rising, then you trade it long and if price is breaking that last low then you trade it short. Of course, depending on how price opens then there will be modifications to the master plan to get the most ideal entry point...i.e. gapping up or gapping down. The plan is to get in at the most ideal entry point possible. So if it were to gap up at the open then I would wait for it to fill that gap. etc. It all depends on how much common sense and the ability you have when looking at the chart on the hourly and 15 minute time frames. Look at the oil chart these last few months. It looked a little bit similar to the chart I am displaying. If price were to fall below a certain point like that oil chart then you have to short it or go long the inverse variety of etfs. My current assumption is we will move up from here and it appears the strength/weakness of the dollar will correlate with the success of that assumption. If the dollar sees weakness then we will get that bump up. I am a short term trader (not an investor). Most of my trades are made on the day. So I write from that perspective. Most of my decisions are made on the fly and I usually draw up the charts beforehand as a reference acknowledging all scenarios.
If you had done that with the price movement under the first of the lows that make up your second higher low area (the one that undercut the first low of that move down by a couple of ticks around 816), you'd have been whipsawed to a huge loss. Stating general truisms is well and good also. Actually trading off them profitably is completely different.
I think of it as a military operation. I plan ahead as much as I can looking at all of the scenarios and variables. Then when I commence with the actual operation I adapt as I go. Things could change suddenly on Monday or everything might go exactly as planned. It depends on your ability to adapt to the situation. Some people seem to adapt pretty well while others do not survive the operation. I dont put much thought into truisms or generalisms. In fact, I have no idea what you just said and dont care to understand it. What I do works for me pretty well and I am generally able to navigate these situations. Im not focused on the philosophical part like you are. When I stop to philosophize then that is the time I start losing money.
In your post just prior, you said "trade long when price is going up and short when it is going down". What could that possibly be other than a truism? In fact, the only other statement you could have made that would be more of a truism would have been to say "the trend is your friend", which actually is essentially what you said, but whatever. That's not "philosophizing", it's having basic self-awareness. If you are spouting truisms, yet claim not to put much though into them, you clearly aren't aware that your statements are contradictory. Yeah, I know, whatever. Well, if you don't want to have people react to your statements, don't put them in a public forum. From a short-term trading perspective, you should already be long and get out if it takes out that low around 826. Thinking beyond that to whether it will make a new high or not is irrelevant.
Indeed. We should retest the recent new highs. But the pullback isn't over yet. I have a feeling we have one flush-out left. One big down day to trap all the bears. Who then give up as we rally to new highs... and when the bears are all gone, it is finally time to short.
Like I said, I didnt come here to talk about truisms or whatever. I wish I could follow along with what you are saying, but I dont wish to put any more thought into it and waste bandwidth. Honestly, the reason why I posted this was to have people react to my statements, but I dont know where we are going with this...i.e.truisms, etc. I just want to post a setup and talk it out a bit rather then debate philosophy or banter on anything else. I never have positions going into a new week. Like I said, I just draw up a plan, study it and then modify it as I go.