IVZ - Playing Vol Term Structure "Contango" and Long Vega

Discussion in 'Options' started by livevol_ophir, Sep 16, 2010.

  1. livevol_ophir

    livevol_ophir ET Sponsor

    IVZ is trading $20.91, up small with IV30&#8482 down 0.3%.

    <img src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TJJZ_8RWW2I/AAAAAAAAEys/kkH41UukQWg/s1600/ivz_summary.gif">

    The company has traded over 8,200 options on total daily average option volume of just 418. All but 234 contracts went up in a single put spread; buying Jan'11 20 puts and selling Oct 20 puts paying $1.10 net. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/ivz.html">in the article</a>).

    The Options Tab (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/ivz.html">in the article</a>) illustrates that the puts are at least partially opening (compare OI to trade size). You can also see that OctIV < Jan'11IV < Apr'11IV.

    The Skew Tab snap (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/ivz.html">in the article</a>) illustrates the vols by strike by month.

    <img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/TJJaJoi42JI/AAAAAAAAEzM/Hm4-iqtZn5Y/s1600/ivz_skew_9-16-2010.gif">

    This more clearly demonstrates the month to month vol diffs with the back getting more expensive than the front.

    Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/09/ivz.html">in the article</a>). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30&#8482 - red vs IV90&#8482 - green vs HV90&#8482 - blue vs HV180&#8482 - pink). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30&#8482 vs. the HV20&#8482 vol difference.

    I've highlighted the vols. This chart makes the bet a little more clear. The long term historical vol is 43. The 90 day historical is 45. Both of the IV's traded are below the historicals. IV30&#8482 (sold) is 37 and IV90&#8482 (bought) is 39.

    This is an interesting trade as it gets long vega which is slightly depressed. If IVZ hangs around $20 by Oct expo, this trade could turn out very well. Further, if the vol elevates in the same pattern - that is, the back goes up more than the front, this bet also wins nicely. If backwardation eases up, this trade can lose pretty fast.

    This is trade analysis, not a recommendation.

    Details, trades, prices, vols, skews, charts here:

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