End of quarter, central banks shoring up and push for USD, out of EUR and JPY adjustments with their repatriation has made some strong moves this week. It is not worth being on the other side of such moves - no matter the minute risk, long timeframe and money management strategy. The interventions and political influences are part of the picture for some periods - and these conditions are important to identify for the money markets.
been shorting the euro for days.. how's this for timing? <img src="http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2100410">
Scrapped the trade for a 25 pip loss. I'm back on the sidelines - at this point, trades I make are not following any rationale I'm used to. So instead of gambling, I'll sit this sillyness out.
EUR / USD is now at the 50 retracement from the last run up. It's currently testing that level for the second time. The current level is also near the trendline as indicated on the screenshot. I don't like to enter with momentum against me, so I'll see if momentum will die out. Some volatile announcements ahead tomorrow (NFP) as well. What are your thoughts?
Short USD/CAD, looking for a decent drop back to 106.5ish levels, will move stops to b/e asap. The risk/reward on this trade is excellent, backed by technical resistance @ 108. I'm concerned about the fundies/news out there right now along with the dollar strength...but will take this trade based on the risk/reward & technicals alone.
CAD had some commodity softness worries, as well as the US trade/biz impact of it's big neighbour. AUD is much more attractive as commodity currency - at least it has found back some correlation in the market.
USD/MXN, Great short oportunity for a carry tradeshort-medium- long term position. Panic got the peso way to cheap, cant hold much. And the 6.25% in your favor. May become 6.75% very soon.
Here is my 1cent(1cent lost to inflation) on the USD, the moves we saw regarding the bailout has happened and we know that the NFP will be negative. The key is how negative. If we see the NFP out of the parameters of the normal losses seen recently the dollar will fall. (my guess hard200-300 pips). If it is in the range of the last few amounts of job losses we would see a spike up then a quick drop down. That is how i see it unfolding. If i was to set an entry it would be bearish USD. The automotive industry is getting killed, small business financing is getting killed. And it is small business that fuels our jobs in the U.S. Foreclosure are not even close to easing. Also, the bailout bill is only helping psychologically and it is to early to show in the actual numbers that count. Banks aren't granting much credit in order to keep liquid. (keep in account that oil could be the extinguisher or the fuel to this fire) After saying that, I am placing a Long position EUR/USD@1.3830 Stop@1.3782 target@1.4165. For what it's worth, that is my 1cent. I am earger to hear other opinions from the ET wise ones.
Sure EURUSD is bull long term, but don't underestimate intervention and relief rally show-boating. Size should reflect the significant risk, so that sane money management is employed to secure a trade. Common sense would say - don't bet on the numbers tomorrow with a trade locking you in right now, and with the bailout maybe passing as well - the risk for whiplash is just insane. Quick scalping works, but see the EURUSD right now - it's anemic and unpredictable.