At the top of the hour or from now on and the next 2-3 hours, there will probably be a somewhat stronger trend on USDJPY and possibly EURUSD - that they break out of their ranges. I don't think multi-day ranges will break, but just some stronger moves - attempts at direction.
closed EURJPY at 137.56 for +45pips and EURUSD at 1.3537 for +10pips ... tired of waiting. ... and 2-3 minutes later it looks more dicey. When EURJPY couldn't go through 137.60 and hold it ... as well as USDJPY beginning to falter - I felt it was time to cut the scalps. Pretty good exits - but not so good entries. My long-term EURUSD is pretty flat now .. entry 1.3475. It has been around +300pips -- but I'm still sticking with it, as I see the potential there. Anyone else notice the 20 minute spacing of wave tops/bottoms on the EURJPY?
Lack of strength in the equity market is supporting the dollar. I wonder if this correction is even going to fully play out. Right now it looks like the dollar could just continue to run.
Repatriation effects are continuously into play here .. but in roughly 90-120 minutes I will see if there isn't a good USDJPY short, or a good EURJPY long setup again. The US RTH close will probably be directionless like the other days, but volatile as the settlement effects enter. I would say a longer term EURUSD is very attractive now - but then I have held this view since last week at these EURUSD levels. The potential for +1000 pips is there, and it has retraced +300 or so ... 1.3400 - 1.3450 are pretty critical levels for EURUSD, but I think it would rebound pretty quickly.
Bottom fishing .. risky business ... long EURJPY 136.70 ... looking for up towards 137.60 ... babysitting stop again. Watching EURUSD and USDJPY closely for clues. It auto-terminated at -25pips, I didn't change the stop I had from the entry - but that's ok - the entry sucked, and I knew it was very risky. I am looking at the USDJPY 101 and EURUSD 1.35 as holding up - that was why I was bottom fishing the EURJPY. Might still re-enter if I'm convinced.
Re-entry at 136.46 EURJPY .. but it must hold .. have -25 stop for now. Target around the 137.40 now ... It's moving and stop moved to -10 pips. Rats... stopped out. I think the trade is there --- but I have to watch a little - get a good entry. This is the witching hour - towards the end of US RTH and obviously skiddishness. JPY is strengthening - and earlier there were Asian JPY buyers - and some repatriation. Some defensive EURJPY and USDJPY here now. 19:46 CET re-entered 136.37 EURJPY .... last attempt - stop at -25pips. Target 137.40. Favour EURJPY over USDJPY - because the two next sessions are JPY and then EUR. 19:50 CET killed the trade at -15pips. Third time was no charm. No fishing luck today - better stick to confirmed trades. 19:53 CET entered a medium-term trade at 136.15 - stop 134.90 and target 138.20 ... 2 minutes later - talk about catching a knife... hehe. Lost -50 pips total on the entries which were stopped out so far... But overall I'm positive for scalps so far today. EURUSD shows me that EURJPY is safer than USDJPY, but Yen is certainly strengthening - will have to wait to JPY buying resides. Beige book outlooks which are impacting. Weakening the USD by taking flight into JPY - may be Japanese repatriation effects and settlements. Some good setups will be emerging now.