IV Smile and Firm Fundamentals

Discussion in 'Options' started by .sigma, Jul 18, 2020.

  1. taowave

    taowave

    There is no such thing as a "retail trader" any more..
    No question deep pockets helps..
    The playing field has been leveled...
    Market makers have the edge assuming order flow,but only if its 2 way flow..
    If its one way flow,they better be good at "front running" a lost art:)

    Forget the info advantage..Thats not their edge
     
    #21     Jul 21, 2020
    ironchef, lightfightercap and Atikon like this.
  2. I agree that there is no informational advantage to be had by anyone who isn't an institution, and the playing field has mostly been leveled when comparing the top non-institutional players and institutional players. There isn't much proprietary information left.

    Where do you think the cremé for market markers is derived? It's control over inflating the width of bid-ask spreads, based on an evaluation of a product made by an algorithm designed by someone smarter than most of us. Buying order flow is only used to magnify volume and make a wide spread more profitable, as I understand.

    So you're right, the information used to compile the evaluation is mostly available to all of us, but I'm guessing it's tough to actually do ourselves what they do with it. They also might have data from exchanges about user behavior and who wins and who loses and why, something we don't have access to. But yeah, regardless, they make money with spreads, not directly by having more processed information.
     
    #22     Jul 21, 2020
    .sigma likes this.
  3. .sigma

    .sigma

    A few things:

    First, register. SSN is an immensely helpful source for knowledge, especially academic papers on øptionality.

    Second, I suggest you read it before commenting.

    They suggest that the way the implied smile is shaped on an equity underlying can be analyzed using fudamental metrics. So using fundamental analysis can help an option trader understand the cross section shapes of the IV curve. They conducted null hypothesis to disprove this and both nulls were rejected (confirming that fundies do in fact affect the iv smile).

    Basically they used widely known popular fundamental metrics: Leverage, interest coverage, liquidity, profitability, investment, size, equity market momentum, dividends, and book to market ratio.

    The implied vol level, slope, and curvature of the 30 day ATM options were analyzed in conjunction.

    I'm still digesting this paper so I'll reply later with some more info.
     
    #23     Jul 21, 2020
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  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    Question then: Since most of us seldom buy on ask and sell on bid, we normally traded mid or a few cents +/-, how much can they make from a wide bid/ask? I traded names with wide bid/ask.
     
    #24     Jul 21, 2020
  5. .sigma

    .sigma

    well as we all know ever since the late 80s, early 90s the market has been accelerating as an organism. What’s that law? Moore I think? Power laws are at work here my friends.

    a huge problem money markets had to deal with was the efficiency of liquidity in the past. Since the markets are ever evolving this problem has finished and keeps on, look at the volume numbers, also even better look at the bid/ask. Also peep the regulators and how they are approaching the NBBO. Study up on Rule 612 and how they’ve changed the minimum price value (mpv). Market makers have been arb’ed themselves, so now they manage their books differently. They profit from other methods as well in addition to the b/a spread.
     
    #25     Jul 21, 2020
  6. .sigma

    .sigma

    how much? It depends on how their book is structured, but I would think theoretically a lot of greenbacks from wider bid asks
     
    #26     Jul 21, 2020
  7. .sigma

    .sigma

    hey this is elite trader so let’s be elite, shall we? 511DA85E-E6D8-4E1D-9E96-C5754D2B1D6A.jpeg
     
    #27     Jul 21, 2020
  8. .sigma

    .sigma

    Conceptually, this chart is joined by a second one, but it illustrates how market makers delta hedge, and position combo trades, and profit regardless of directional risk
     
    #28     Jul 21, 2020
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    You are elite, I am not. Maybe one day. o_O
     
    #29     Jul 21, 2020
    .sigma likes this.
  10. .sigma

    .sigma

    I am far far from elite. But I know for a fact I don’t have as much humility as you lol
     
    #30     Jul 21, 2020