The shit (but realistic) earnings next week should move the market - IMO. IV is cheap now,I suggest straddle the SPX, RUT or NDX .. Open discussion to all
VIX @ 15.32 is quite low. Premiums are low. Why a straddle as opposed to my favorite; vertical spreads combined to form an Iron Condor?
Buy strangles one strike away either side. Maximum gamma, still good sensitivity to volatility - vega. But: I haven't looked, more than likely by now the IV on those companies reporting earnings next week is probably up there. VIX being low is just an overall number. I suppose you could make out on the index options in that case, though.
Complacency is rampant but who knows when the joyride will stop. The debt ceiling dog pony show by mid may should add some vol although i have no doubt it will be increased.
I just closed half of my straddle today to lock in some profits and buy some extra puts as lottery ticket, - market may reverse tomorrow after Mr Bubble Ben's speech. Anyone buy some cheap straddle in SPX, RUT, NDX and etc since this post was opened weeks ago ? Any comment or opinion on what may happen tomorrow ?
His point was that with VIX/volatility low and an expectation of a big move or even increase in volatility then it is a good time, in his opinion to BUY premium/volatility and look for such a move. Your question as to why do that as opposed to your Iron Condor strategy which basically is shorting vol and looking for market to stay in a range is exactly opposite to the premise he established. To illustrate clearer here is what your comment looks like: OP: With the sun shining and the temperature at 85 degrees and no rain expected, why not spend the day at the beach and try to enjoy the weather. You: Why advocate going to the beach on a day like that when you can instead wear a snow suit and turtle neck sweater with long pajamas and spend the day driving around the city with the A/C turned off and windows closed.
bought 500 bucks worth of weekly 1320P on es mini as a lottery towards closing. market fully expects bencopter to continue support liquidity and weak dollar. if his remarks deviate from that should cause a drop