I'm up $625 today! No position...I was going to go for it because it looked like we were setting up for retrace, but it would have used up all my available margin, so now its in my spreadsheet and will keep reminding me what I missed out on lol.. With a 1SD move and same IV I'm looking at about 1:1 RW...however if IV spikes to 400% like it usually does then that could be more like 1:2 or 1:3.
Power move today..someone buying BTC in a big way today..people were talking about a blowoff top..but im not sure about that...seems like a steady long with some small consolidation here and there.
I honestly think it comes down to supply. If what John has been posting is accurate, if the whales that are selling are almost done, then I think things can get explosive. We have to remember that Bitcoin isn't a GME stock that you can just create more shares of if the demand is there. When everyone who sold thinking $100k was the top, has to now take a position again, who knows how high it can go. Maybe the time isn't just yet, but I do think that Bitcoin will re-write the book on market dynamics and technical analysis. We can't think of bitcoin as a trade, we have to think of it as a revolution. People sell shares of a stock because they got a 100% gain, maybe because they got lucky with a 10x. Then this stock has to prove itself, which is often difficult because sky high prices are difficult to justify when other companies will rush to copy what you are doing and holding onto market share is very difficult these days. But Bitcoin isn't like this, its more like the move in transportation from horse to car. You don't go backwards. When you accept that the fiat system is broken and the world needs a new monetary system, there is no going back. So what kind of a retrace can there really be if nation states adopt Bitcoin, and if more companies put it on their treasury?
You are looking at it backwards...clearly the chart was showing due for a retrace and is just fulfilling the technicals. In other words you are assuming price went up because somebody was buying big, when price was always going to go up regardless...actually looks like it moved on a low volume day...anyway irrelevant!