*yawn* Who cares. Real masters know to act and re-act to the market, not to sit there and try to predict when it's going to change.
Just keep taking the shot when you see your signals. That is all you can do.....next thing you know one of your trades catches a good run. http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/15/ES_317_VB.png Scale some out on the way down and then add back small portions when you get new signals.....book some profits along the way........... http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/15/ES_317_VB_2.png Once in the money and your first targets hit, put stops at B/E and your risk is now zero....with some profits already locked in from scale outs. You will know when a top is in place "after the fact".....hopefully you will already have a SHORT position on that you are managing when the market starts to make lower highs. ....and some SHORT attempts run with good follow through and others not as good, but you just keep taking shots until one hits the target dead on...... http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/15/ES_317_VB_3.png
If you don't know what to do, why don't you start looking at other markets? The US equity market is not the only market in the world.
vix is so damn low and despite and the world is long overdue for a recession. I dont think we've mastered the art of continual growth yet. it will happen, but i got burnt last time going short. ill follow it till it it ends. although for some of my longer position trades i am buying quite a few OTM put options to cover my ass if there is a sudden downturn.
Yeah, that's it. If you want to predict become an analyst. If you want to make money as a trader get very close to your market (Imagine it is your lovely one and try to read every wish from her glossy lips).
eagle: are you really shorting the market? Market made new high each day. do not fight the tape, once someone said.