Everyone of you are correct. 1.Don't buck the trend..I'm with that. 2. Looking for short opportunity to come.. Can't agree more. Have a plan of action since all of us are trading differently. Follow your plan.
I say August 25th myself, but my idea of overvalued markets does not involve tens of percent of downside. As I see it, the market fluctuates between overbought and oversold levels that last for only a few days. The idea of selling an absolute multi-year high is unlikely, as well as frought with tons of volatility in the iterim even if you are right about the top. Tops are more temporary than they are permanent, just as dips are. The market is nearly always fairly valued, and if your systems or whatever analysis you have doesn't work that way, you have an immediate problem. I see talking heads on TV constantly talking about overbought levels when all they're looking at is month long charts with indicators with no predictive value. Summing the percentage of stocks above their 50 day moving average has not been shown to be profitable, and, yes I've backtested it.
This turned out to be a fantastic call, eh? When are you folks going to stop trying to call a top? This market isn't stopping. It's chugging right on ahead - in fact, pace is accelerating!
I am new to this site and say hi to all. How can I tell if I should now go short. Do I read more posts on this site or do I look at charts and ta. What stocks should I short. How far might they go down before they go back up?
Welcome to ET Mach. Unfortunately there are no definitive answers to your questions. If there were, we'd all be rich as hell.