Citibank is going down, as are the big 3 automakers and Moody's states a record number of companies are on the verge of bankruptcy. This is going to be the worst Christmas for retailers in many years and a lot of companies will stay in the red well after black Friday. Our bankrupt government is over $10 trillion dollars in debt and can't keep bailing out companies with money it does not have. The fundamental difference between this bear market and those in recent memory is our astronomical national debt. Our friends in China and the mid-East are not going to keep buying our debt. They are going to put more of their money into real assets like gold (while it lasts). I went long gold earlier this week and am planning to buy an inverse retail sector ETF before black Friday.
Bill: I did not know you trade commodities. Could you start an ET thread like the urgent rennick one? I will NOT post my calls in it as I do not trade them, but I will be a supportive reader! I am serious.
Market overshoot tops. Are you sure that they overshoot bottoms? A top always contain fluff. A bear market's role is to establish a rock to build on. Are you saying that a previous bear market can leave some undone work?
What you said...and some of these geniuses STILL think we've hit a bottom! I have no idea where the bottom is, and I'm not going to guess. Wherever it is, it hasn't happened yet. For right now I'm going to continue putting on bearish option positions on ETF's and watch the overall market fluctuate and continue to fall. I'll take whatever the market wants to continue to hand over, and say: Thank you, sir. May I have another?
why do you think this bottom is the equivalent to thebottom in 2002? i hope it is not based on the plain numerical value of S&P.
Earnings HAVE been cut in half... down from about $94 to $46... prices have also been cut in half... so the valuation remains the same... about 17x. Not a bargain yet.
i will wait and see if the bottom is retested...it usually is. got caught once, bought the bottom, then it went up, only to come down lower....sold, and yes that was the bottom remember, the market fools the greatest amount of people gold's spike may have been a response to the fear factor....usually when banks are in peril...as C was on Friday, and the big 3 have not yet been bailed out also, bottoms don't normally occur on Fridays; Mondays are historically the worst day for the markets
Look, there's no question that the charts are ugly and that we could fall much further...but in my experience, when you have a technical overextension like this, it's quite easy to make a reversal...it won't be a reversal based on anything but short covering...but since we had the mother of all sell-offs, you gotta think we could also get the mother of all short coverings... 1077 or so is where I think we can go by next Summer.....