It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by orbit23, Feb 27, 2020.

  1. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Yes.
    The beauty of Skin in the game.
    Weak players are eventually Sidelined.
     
    #41     Feb 27, 2020
    volente_00 likes this.
  2. Name one instance where a supply chain disruption led to a recession.
     
    #42     Feb 27, 2020
  3. Sig

    Sig

    9/11

    However again you're at least two steps behind and looking backward if you insist that the only things that can cause a recession are things that caused a recession in the past. Name one instance where a subprime mortgage crisis caused a recession before 2008?
     
    #43     Feb 27, 2020
    10_bagger and speedo like this.
  4. 9/11 didn't cause a recession.

    Irresponsible lending practices caused the Great Depression.

    Maybe you are the one who is steps behind.

    The closest thing to a supply disruption causing recession that I know of would be 1979 Iranian revolution causing oil supply problems.
     
    #44     Feb 27, 2020
  5. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    Living in hurricane alley USA, I can attest to the panic. The perception, the media the ensuing panic is usually 10 fold.
     
    #45     Feb 27, 2020
  6. Sig

    Sig

    So you're sticking with this idea that only something that caused a recession in the past can cause one going forward? And you think that those who are worried about the coronavirus impacting the world economy are worried because we literally think it will depopulate the world to the extent it would cause a recession?
    And you're the one thinking ahead? All righty then, good luck with that.

    BTW, what did cause the early 2000 recession?
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
    #46     Feb 27, 2020
  7. Technically, there was no recession in 2001. There were not two consecutive quarters of GDP decline.

    What caused slowing (sometimes negative) growth? I would guess over-extension of credit due to the economic success of the 1990s. It was more of a correction than a recession.

    Definitely wasn't 9/11 cause GDP growth was back in positive territory by Q4 2001.

    As far as relying on things in the past, that's because it's called an economic cycle.

    There are things about the economy that are linear: advances in technology, population growth, and more. But the business cycle is cyclical. There are long-term and short-term debt cycles.
     
    #47     Feb 27, 2020
  8. Even if the economy crashes right now... It wasn't because of coronavirus. It was because of over extension of credit due to economic success since the Great Recession ended.
     
    #48     Feb 27, 2020
  9. Sig

    Sig

    It was caused by the .com bust, just like we had in '29 and '57 and ...oh, actually that had never happened before either. Hell we had a recession in 1893 because a railroad failed! Since you seem to like to do this let me make this broad for you.... recessions are often caused by a disruption to the economy, often at the end of an expansionary period. The supply chain impact on the world economy is a disruption, we're at the end of a nearly unprecedented expansionary period. There, good enough for your symantic view of the world?

    And again, literally no one with any background in economics thinks the world economy will suffer because of population loss a la the bubonic plague as you originally indicated. If you think everyone is a moron because that's what they believe...but you're the one mistaken about what they believe...then....
     
    #49     Feb 27, 2020
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    Well, geez, it sure seems that some folks feel this way, ala the past 7 calendar days of the market!
     
    #50     Feb 27, 2020