It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by orbit23, Feb 27, 2020.

  1. Deez

    Deez

    Hard to believe markets don’t close higher today given yesterday’s close at highs.

    Edit: And given it just spiked 3% lol
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
    #321     Mar 3, 2020
  2. S2007S

    S2007S

    Told you they would cut...


    0 rates here we come and then negative



    They fuxking cut rates


    Fuxking pathetic. Just shows you how sad this fed js
     
    #322     Mar 3, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.
  3. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Great question, I'm wrong way more often than right %wise, like anyone else. My most profitable weeks like last week's 5k are because I use small stops and position sizing.

    #1 lesson learned in 21 years is "the math is a LOT more important than chart patterns". Eg if I take 6 stops costing $600 and 2 scaled- in wins winning $880 I'm profitable being right only 2/8 trades.

    Anyone claiming to make >50% winning trades consistently is total BS. Ask any floor trader.

    Example I bought 50shares SQQQ earlier hod right before rate cut today and got stopped out on the drop. But I bought back in for pivot and it ran up :p
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
    #323     Mar 3, 2020
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  4. KCalhoun,

    So in other words, keep reward greater than risk over time?
     
    #324     Mar 3, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.
  5. Can you briefly explain your buy or sell signals?
     
    #325     Mar 3, 2020
  6. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Sure, mostly I use prior day OHLC based entries, since algos/hft does. Main buy signal is long above small gaps over prior day highs.

    Main thing is trade a lot of small trades with tight stops, throw a lot of darts. Took me 20 fxcking years to learn that the hard way sigh.

    Example I stopped out of 50 shares SQQQ on morning fed cut today, but bought pivot 3x so far on the way up. I'm profitable in it now.

    Younger dumber me would've bought 300 shares, got stopped out, cursed the fed and failed to re-enter. Seriously, it's a numbers and math game using implied odds and directional volatility, not magic chart patterns. Plus much more focus on TRIN & VIX
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
    #326     Mar 3, 2020
    SimpleMeLike and themickey like this.
  7. orbit23

    orbit23

    I find it interesting, how my initial post only has 2 likes, out of so many views and replies. Doesn't seem like the most popular opinion out there.

    That's kinda the point, though.
     
    #327     Mar 3, 2020
  8. themickey

    themickey

    Well it's debatable about bull run come to an end, who has a crystal ball?
    My guess is we go down quite hard then recover as usual.
    Could be several months to a year or two.
    I can only feel ahead on mkt vibes though a day or two, atm I think that this month is screwed for bulls but in terms of actual trading am more bullish than bearish right up ahead.
     
    #328     Mar 3, 2020
  9. You really think this virus will affect markets for a year or two? No way. It's already dying down.

    The more important factor that I see is that the Fed is lowering rates and using all their available tools. They won't have anything left for when unemployment rises.
     
    #329     Mar 3, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.
  10. What do you estimate your ROI per year?
     
    #330     Mar 3, 2020