It's over. Historical bull run has come to an end.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by orbit23, Feb 27, 2020.

  1. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    Also lightning strikes. I still wouldn't like the odds if hit by one
     
    #141     Feb 29, 2020
  2. Probably add shark attacks and airplane crashes to that also.

    Now mosquitoes are another story
     
    #142     Feb 29, 2020
  3. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Or maybe another black Monday.... fed stim won't fix China supply chain or virus...

    if Monday ends red I'm buying a lot more SQQQ UVXY etc, am wiring more money into trading acts to leverage up, rare huge bear mkt start likely unless cvirus cure soon which is unlikely... we may easily repeat last Nov dec selloff
     
    #143     Feb 29, 2020
  4. S2007S

    S2007S



    Exactly..... yet every year nothing is being done, well they have the "flu vaccine" yet tens of thousands of people pass away each year.
    You would think the flu season would then end of it all but nope. Its the Coronavirus
     
    #144     Feb 29, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.
  5. Cuddles

    Cuddles

    How is this a difficult point to understand? We've got a highly contagious airborne virus we know very little about w/a kill ration of 2-3% to the infected (20x worse than the flu). We've got a for-profit health care system that makes people apprehensive to seek treatment when they catch "the common cold/flu" for risk of the bill coming their way. We've got a demonized immigrant community that will go underground rather than risk getting quarantined then deported. We also have one of the best air & traffic systems in the world.

    So let's skip China for a second & the shit show impact to commerce that the lock down has and will continue to have. Now you've got domestic companies sending people home under quarantine & possibly pausing operations.

    All of the above on a market that's being held up on cheap money & hopes and dreams. Forget about the kill ratio & the panic, just focus on the fundamentals of the market impact.
     
    #145     Feb 29, 2020
  6. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Coronavirus is like the dragons in Game of Thrones... "dracarus"

    Fire burning the economy 1Q 2Q 3Q earnings.. plus likely some China mfg leaders, managers etc lost, huge global disruption, higher prices, recession, mkt is toast, the sky is falling lol
     
    #146     Feb 29, 2020
  7. For all you know, the thing could blow over in 1 month with "only" 10k deaths.

    I say "only" 10k because it's out of 7.5 billion.
     
    #147     Feb 29, 2020
  8. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    True.... it's unknown, mkts hate uncertainty....we do know supply chain disruption is real right now
     
    #148     Feb 29, 2020
    farmerjohn1324 likes this.
  9. I'll be interested to see the effect that the unemployment/jobs report on March 6th has. That is actual real data.
     
    #149     Feb 29, 2020
    KCalhoun likes this.
  10. Sig

    Sig

    Given that:
    a. Unemployment numbers are collected on the week that includes the 12th of the month which is before there would have been any impact to the U.S. economy from this, and
    b. We don't lay people off immediately in response to supply chain disruptions even if we knew for certain that they might have significant impacts as they work their way through the economy, and we don't know much for certain at this point.

    The unemployment data released in March for Feb will be pretty much completely irrelevant to determining anything about the current situation.

    But of course with your vast macro experience you would have known that, no?
     
    #150     Feb 29, 2020
    Cuddles likes this.