This was a premature call on my part. The numbers got tighter in NC and OH from my OP. Whether Biden wins or not, the polls absolutely suck. OH is currently at the same margin it was at in 2016. I may or may not lose money, but oh well. NV, PA, MI, and WI are all in play right now. The GOP is definitely keeping the Senate.
Fulfilling your constitutional mandate when elected is now "stacking the court". You're a complete lunatic.
My prediction is that Biden gets to 270 and wins the ball of wax. I can't say I'm entirely displeased with this. He's prevented from stacking the court or doing other asshatery (assuming he would) because the GOP has kept the senate. So we get a return to more civility, and not a lot of the whole "radical" behavior that was worrisome. If my biggest fear comes to play and the democrats dump Biden for Kamala, then she is limited in what she can do - though I rather imagine she goes crazy with executive orders that essentially guarantees her being a one term president.
This looks like the most likely outcome. I'm thinking these missing ballots are mail ins which is advantage Biden. The polls still fucking suck though. They were consistently off by 4-5 points except in AZ.
This is the kind of stuff that will lead to a contested election, and the removal of the possibility that either side will accept the results: There might be a good reason for it, but it just shouldn't happen like this. Mail in votes need to be set - nationally - on what is accepted and what isn't. Too much shenanigans. This, plus the fact that MI legislated to not count mail in votes until polls were closed leads to all sorts of conspiracy theories.