correct about oil prices. Without real structural improvement it is highly likely recoveries created by deficit spending will be stopped in their tracks by oil prices and or the bond market. A guy who works for me just bought a 240,000 dollar house using his dads 1.9 percent equity line. His mortgage, for now, will be about 600 dollars a month. How long can money stay that cheap if the economy's recovering.
more inventory is coming on the market, the public sector's attempts to shore things up only delayed things.. and we have the rich and the poor in this culture now, so the rich could have a little housing bubble of their own and the poor would never participate in it at all...
This is P&R, my talk will be backed up in November, believe me. Secondly I am a pure price action trader, housing starts are not an indicator you can trade off of as it is a macro indicator. But if you traded, you would know that, soooo.......
Yeah, you must be right that sounds like a lot. And housing starts do lead the economy by up to a year. Oh, wait, I just looked at the chart that invalidates your recovery hypothesis. You do see where 699k falls on this chart, don't you? <img src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1YN1vXjPdzc/Tnjl-2jVBuI/AAAAAAAAR5M/1xc-QISbsNo/s640/HousingStarts2.gif" width=500 height= 300>
"Perhaps due to falling foreclosure numbers, January was the 19th consecutive month that inventory levels dropped. The number of homes for sale last month was 24.1% lower than the number seen in January 2011." That's just RE/MAX talking, though.
Oh my, can't read a chart can you? Look harder, see that higher low down there? That's called a bottom.
It's been bottoming for 3 years. There is no sign of a breakout. It's just at the top of the range. Move along, nothing to see here!
and pretty soon it could be a double bottom, oh wait, sometimes it's a triple and I've seen quadruple ones that weren't even bottoms at all...
As long as the bottom does not break before November. It can still be in the range, the GOP is so busy self immolating that Obama does not need a good economy, he just needs to be able to stand pat.