It's Like Playin' the Ponies, Ain't It?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Arnie Guitar, Apr 14, 2025.

  1. I'm not sure.
    I'm leaning towards the Casino owner.
     
    #61     Apr 15, 2025
  2. Seems you equate "risk of loss" as always they same = gambling.
    There is risk of loss in driving to the grocery store. Is that gambling too?
     
    #62     Apr 15, 2025
  3. deaddog

    deaddog

    Depends on the game.
    A 50/50 lottery you get to keep 1/2 the money.
     
    #63     Apr 15, 2025
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  4. Hello deaddog,

    I have never been to a Casino before or played any gambling game for money. I rather not bet if the odds are not highly in my favor of winning over time or number of bets.

    I only trade the ES Futures Market.
     
    #64     Apr 15, 2025
  5. nitrene

    nitrene

    ODTE SPX ATM straddles are very similar to roulette wheel.
     
    #65     Apr 15, 2025
  6. Late to the party, but I bring good beer.

    Betting on horse racing went belly up with the introduction of "laying the odds". Bookmakers like Betfair and Betdaq introduced the ability to bet for a horse to lose.

    Now you all might be thinking that is just a fair exchange that allows customers to take the house side.

    But you have to introduce the fact that a jockey can't make a horse to win, but they can make a horse to lose. Anytime they want. All they have to do is to hold the horse when they want.

    That led to a new way of corrupted bets in the UK.

    Look for the "the jockey club scandal" if you want to know more about it.

    Authorities looked the other way and it is still running like nothing happened. Betting on horse racing is completely rigged.
     
    #66     Apr 16, 2025
  7. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    We were able to bet on a horse to lose before “laying the odds”. You just bet on every outcomes, minus the losing horse. I think the payoff is about the same.

    Let’s say there are 3 horses with equal (1/3) chance of winning. What you do is bet 1/2 on two horses paying 2 to 1. You lose 50% on one horse and win 100% + 50% on the other. Total 50% return on your bet.

    Now this is a simple example. In real life each horse has a different payoff and the amount to bet on each horse needs to be reverse engineered.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2025
    #67     Apr 16, 2025
    Drawdown Addict likes this.
  8. Yes, that is pretty much the same. The point wasn't about that you can't do it. I meant that laying the odds made it easier for betting syndicates to fix bets.
     
    #68     Apr 16, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  9. Option Straddles, betting on both sides, hoping and expecting for significant volatilty is a rather vague stupid strategy. If some people can carve out a profit that way, then good for them. But I trade single directional based on my understanding and expectations.

    Like I said, you can treat the market like a casino table game or you can be more precise with your approach.
     
    #69     Apr 16, 2025
  10. The casino odds are NEVER in your favor even the slightest bit. You don't think they built those magnificant palaces on the backs of winners, right?
     
    #70     Apr 17, 2025
    SimpleMeLike likes this.