Discussion in 'Trading' started by LeonPhelps, May 10, 2007.
Someone had to say it.
How hard is hard?
God, I hope so but last time there was a dip and as China goes lower overnight, we'll wake up tomorrow with the DOW futures lower and the Bulls will just prop it back up. We need a steady decline for the next few sessions for the bears. Here's hoping for big institutional selling and more "profit taking" tomorrow....but I doubt it, the market is bullishly rigged.
Just let me see the DOW under 13k by months end.
I think you'll it within a couple days. It's probably going to hit 1460 or more by the end of this month if bad news tomorrow. Trendline already broken on chart today.
I'd be very careful this pullback to around the ema can be seen as a choice buying opportunity the major trend is still intact so why the doom and gloom?
The genius has spoken.
Actually, yes, I think it's possible we could get a solid pullback here. Before the open tomorrow, we've got the PPI and retail sales. Based on recent data those could be nasty, especially retail sales. Asian markets are getting hit as we speak. CPI comes out Tuesday.
And, on Monday well before US market open, we've got this little item that, hopefully, will get the boulder rolling down hill:
China's Inflation Probably Broke Central Bank Target (Update1)
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Inflation in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, probably breached the central bank's target ceiling for a second month as food costs soared, adding pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.
Consumer prices gained 3.1 percent in April from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 17 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, after jumping 3.3 percent in March. The statistics bureau will release the figures at 10 a.m. on May 14.
The central bank, seeking to cap price gains under 3 percent, may also be concerned that interest rates below the inflation rate will fuel stock-market speculation that propelled the CSI 300 stock index up 82 percent this year. With the benchmark one-year deposit rate in China at 2.79 percent, Chinese households are losing money on savings held at banks.
``Negative real interest rates are fueling excessive exuberance'' in the stock market, said Liang Hong, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group in Hong Kong. ``If left unchecked, asset inflation may soon advance into treacherous territory.'' Liang expects the central bank to raise interest rates three more times this year.
Among Chinese 20,000 households surveyed in February, a record high of 30.3 percent said they intend to invest their money on stocks and funds, according to the central bank.
I think the recent Fed statement's lack of enthusiasm about rate cuts may have ended the party we've enjoyed for the last month and a half.
Um maybe not so. The selloff today shifted pressure off those numbers. There is more leniency.
Unless they are very bad i'm sure we'll see a morning gap up
this move top to bottom will not be more than .5 sigma.
then we enter congestion with an upwards bias for the summer.
Hey, who knows, maybe we'll be up tomorrow, but the idea that there is more "leniency' with econ numbers because the market dropped a percent is pretty silly.
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