The market will be shite this year fullstop. Nothing will make it move. Earnings, figures nothing. My advice is, if you have the money, go and do something else for the year. Which means I'll be trading this year lol
Not true. And I say that respectfully. The S&P won't reach 1200, so you can forget about 1250 by March. Good trading!
To put this in proper perspective, the S&P March 1200 call is currently $10 So i'm saying it's going lower than $10, and you're saying it's going higher than $10.
The U.S. economy is a maturing economy. Earnings growth will play a deceasing role in overall US market evaluation, but as always earnings reports and analyst up- and down-grades will add volatility in the short run. In the last three decades, the most important driver of both earnings and the US market has been inflation and the expectation of inflation with time out for excursions fueled by Wall Street hype. In the long run, the market pays no attention to doctored, Fed inflation figures, but instead it prices in real inflation. The US market will continue to rise more or less indefinitely, but with periods of consolidation and bear markets interspersed. Some of these latter can last for a decade or more, depending on actual inflation. The exceptions will be periods when there is a significant decline in earnings in spite of ever present inflation. Dividends play an essential role in market returns. A plot of the total return of the S&P500 in recent decades (dating roughly from the U.S. abandonment of the Bretton Woods accord) in constant dollars, with dividends removed, shows that the real advance of the market is roughly equivalent to the return from treasury bonds. In other words, most of the markets nominal total return can be attributed to a combination of inflation and dividends. There is no reason to think this will not continue to be true. On the other hand, knowing this is of little use to traders, whose concern is with short term market fluctuations fueled by the financial media, which is force fed by Wall Street market makers and their analysts. So, the bottom line is that it is rather pointless to speculate ahead of time that if earnings are bad the market will decline, and if they are good the market will rise. Because, as always, earning reports will be both mixed and spun to serve the interests of the market makers. Bad earnings can be celebrated as beating expectations, and good earnings can be put down as due to a one-time event, or threatened by fictitious, rumored concerns for future earnings. And so it goes. We traders will trade the market we are given, whatever that may be.
after a long time, I'm seeing today none(very few) stocks moved up after first 30 mins. SnP is down every now and then but today there is hardly any buying anywhere. If it remains like this till 4pm can indicate substantial weakness.
I agree that today's trading has downside implications going forward. I look for more downside next week when earnings come out.