its all about pure math

Discussion in 'Trading' started by miss asian, Oct 31, 2011.

  1. A lot of people have viewed this thread but nobody has investigated/pointed out it's a scam.

    Search Google for: skype quantme
    Takes you to a "female Filipino" twitter account. From there we see:
    1.) Links to their Collective2 system down 12.1% in 1 month
    2.) Links to a Facebook page with location of Amman, Jordan
    -- Link from this Facebook page shows the owner of said page, a male in Jordan
    3.) Tweets saying search me on Facebook account "darreeb"
    4.) Promotion of the "namedskyperoom.com" with same style charts as have been posted on ET.

    Search Google for: facebook darreeb
    You'll see a link to ForexFactory and other sites. Click their profile and view all posts. Thread charging people 500 EUR and many pages of unhappy people. Also mentions of sigmafx etc.

    I'm sure there's more but this should be enough to discredit the fake account.
     
    #81     Nov 20, 2011
  2. Thanks for pointing this up and prevent the newbies to fall into this kind of scam/trap.

    I think most of us here are experience enough to know this is the scam when we first this thread (include myself) :D

    Nevertheless, I still hate to see those scam head target those newbies or disadvantaged groups in internet - like those old people with money to invest, people without much trading knowledge to know how to diffrential those snake oil saleman, blue collar group that lost the jobs and desperate to look for new source of income in "trading" and etc) ..
     
    #82     Nov 20, 2011
  3. Yeah, this entire thread is a scam, and the reason I know that is the OP is a blithering idiot.

    Besides the fact that THERE IS ZERO MATHEMATICS in the thread, it would have taken me some time to put together the fraud by miss_asian.

    There isn't ANY math AT ALL, here, and any reference to it is only to perpetuate an obviously fraudulent promotional method with no explanation or even discussion of math!

    Think miss_asian has crossed the TOS violations once too often here, and if anybody else thinks so please hit complain.
     
    #83     Nov 20, 2011
  4. YPH

    YPH

    Quote from braincell

    If anyone's interested in math, I have about 70 pages of charts (distribution analysis, normalization values, intra-channel price harmonics) from my analysis results. They look pretty, but I'd hate to elaborate what they mean hehe. Useful I know. The normalizations are useful for automated trading and quantifying strength/speed/etc of constructed trend channels.

    Interesting… First time see some real quantitative works.


    For example:
    1) construct trend channel,
    2) find width in absolute terms

    The width can be defined as the distance between the two parallel lines form the channel (then the line segment of this distance is perpendicular to these two parallel lines), or the price difference between the two interceptions of the trend lines with any bar and its extension? I guess both definitions would be OK.


    3) find width in % terms

    Good. Thus convert the absolute width to relative width in % (dividing width by price. Since a channel contains many bars so my guess is that the price used could be the average price of the closing prices of these bars)


    4) normalize width percent

    Stop. You did it too soon here. Each width is associated with a different volatility. I saw you next step is to expend them on volatility spectrum. It is logical confusing to put all widths together to normalize them now. You will do normalization in you last step. In general, don’t do normalization twice on the same set of data.


    5). find distribution of normalized width % accross volatility levels

    Very good. Now we have a 2D graph. The horizontal axis is the volatility level. The vertical axis is the percent/relative width. (not normalized yet)


    6). adjust for volatility to get a linear mean value for distribution

    Excellent. Please let me know if you don’t use linear regression method. Though I did not do these analyses but I can image that the data points form a band/cloud from lower-left corner to upper-right corner since narrower widths are often associated with lower volatilities and wider widths come mostly from the higher volatilities. Linear Regression is idea method here. Yes, the LG line can be served as mean value. Think how wonderful that only two numbers – a slope and a intercept can represent N mean values where N is the # of bars in channel and it is usually several dozens up to hundred.


    7). then create a normalized distributed adjusted for volatility table to get linear values, and voila

    Done.
    I don’t know how big your table is. It should been keeping the balance between how may data points you have and how accurate the normalization will be. There are few other methods to normalize it that require almost no or small tables in order to save computer memory space should this become an issue.


    Useful, though a little noise at extreme ends but if used properly, can tell you exactly how "strong" a trend channel is. Anyone else do this kind of math?

    Anyway, now you have a non-biased, volatility calibrated math tool to help you better enter/exit market once a channel is observed. You called “little noise” at two ends of the width distribution are not unusual. Rather, it is common for lots of other analyses. Wall street calls it the FAT TAIL and blamed it the cause of recent economy crises. Theoretically the probabilities at the extreme ends should be too little to pay any attention but in reality it is not the case as the market is moved by human beings.

    There are probably two indicators I can think of “strong” a channel you mentioned:
    a) In math called the “slope” of the channel, in physics called “speed” or “velocity”, Wall Street call it the “momentum”
    b) In math/Geometry called the “width” of the channel, in physics/mechanics called the “amplitude” of wave/oscillator, I call it “persistence” or “reliability” of price movement along the trend line direction.

    You have done a great work. Have you done anything about Channel duration analysis?
     
    #84     Nov 21, 2011