If anyone's interested in math, I have about 70 pages of charts (distribution analysis, normalization values, intra-channel price harmonics) from my analysis results. They look pretty, but I'd hate to elaborate what they mean hehe. Useful I know. The normalizations are useful for automated trading and quantifying strength/speed/etc of constructed trend channels. For example: construct trend channel, find width in absolute terms, find width in % terms, normalize width percent, find distribution of normalized width % accross volatility levels, adjust for volatility to get a linear mean value for distribution, then create a normalized distributed adjusted for volatility table to get linear values, and voila. Useful, though a little noise at extreme ends but if used properly, can tell you exactly how "strong" a trend channel is. Anyone else do this kind of math?
Wait till someone clue you in that there's a volatility number attached to that expectancy... even in the case of a coin tosses....
I guess the speed of that reversion or the size of the possible deviation from the mean is entirely irrelevant to you? You must be making a killing in the market.
Its completely relevent. In fact my model adjusts for it. sometimes it breaks, most times it works. Ala my belief in expectancy being the most important factor. Not killing it, but not being killed either...slow and steady wins the race.
So... then you no longer agrees with your prior statement? "Thats all you need and as pure as it gets." Not that I disagree with you that expected return is the most important thing - but, it's also the hardest number to estimate (as in forecast, not as in measure).