It's a V! Recovery "A Lot Stronger" Than Consensus, ECRI's Achuthan Says....wowsers!!

Discussion in 'Economics' started by S2007S, Oct 9, 2009.

  1. S2007S


    Wow is this guy excited about this "V" shaped recovery we are in, seems that recessions last a few days and growth lasts forever in this economy. Always so quick to mention we are out of the recession but always so long to tell us were in one. I like how these fools talk.

    It's a V! Recovery "A Lot Stronger" Than Consensus, ECRI's Achuthan Says
    Posted Oct 09, 2009 11:06am EDT by Aaron Task

    Good news for those worried about the economy: "We are in the early stages of the recovery and it looks to be a lot stronger" than the consensus for modest 2%-3% GDP growth, says
    Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

    Furthermore, the recovery will be "V-shaped" and is now "virtually unstoppable" - at least through the first half of 2010 -- Achuthan says, citing a "positive contagion" in the economy right now, based on leading economic indicators. Most notably, the ECRI's index of Weekly Economic Indicators just hit a new record high.

    The cycle watcher also points out that a recovery, by definition, doesn't just mean GDP goes positive. "It must include jobs growth and consumption," which Achuthan says will start to recover by early 2010, at the latest.

    That's not to say Achuthan is ignoring the "laundry list" of negatives, which he says "will take the shine off" the rebound -- and he's not forecasting good times beyond the first half of 2010. But for now, the "train has left the station" on the recovery, he declares.

    In the accompanying video, Achuthan explains how the ECRI puts together its index of leading indicators, but the important thing to remember is they have a stellar track record of forecasting both recessions and recoveries.
  2. Probably just measuring inventory re-build.

    Hard to imagine a strong recovery with employment still falling and credit contracting.
  3. ba1


    Just travelled 1000 miles interstates in midwest. Pretty empty in a lot of places.
  4. The data suggests that things are beginning to get better. It's there for those who want to see it.
  5. They're HOPING it doesn't get better. The biggest fear of the right-wingnuts is that things will get better and their world view will be shattered. The only thing that can stop progressive policies now would be a huge turnover in the Congress in the 2010 elections.
  6. I've made it priority to put off all major spending until after the 2010 elections, I would recommend everyone else do the same. Don't give them the benefit for your productivity and consumption.
  7. Didn't think you were right, Range Bar, but apparently you are.
  8. BTW, I'm long gold on a position basis, and expecting some deterioration in the USD. Because: the recovery is taking hold. If it weren't, the reverse positions would be the ones to take. (Short GDX for today in my spec acct, expecting exactly what happened: intervention and jawboning. It's possible to have a complex view of the world that doesn't include bipolar outcomes, you know. More profitable, too.)
  9. zuccol45


    LOL gotta love ET, last friday everyone was bearish, today everyone is bullish lol lol
  10. That's a good idea. No new cars, big screen TVs, houses until after the mid-term.

    I remember a few years back where a pharmacist in Japan said, "I'm not buying a new suit until the one I have has TWO holes".
    #10     Oct 9, 2009