Iterative Refinement

You have missed something, but more than likely, you haven't missed what you think you have.

Confused?

Allow me to clarify.

First, My post did not assert that one must see a signal for change after 14:50 - only that one could not possibly have seen one (or better yet, received permission from the market to even search for one) prior to the 14:50 bar.

If you cannot yet see why this must be the case, then yes, you have missed something.

However, having said that, you did not miss other signals provided by the market which, in your interpretation, told you the 'right side' remain long.

Unfortunately, (as was the case with TIKI and romanus) you did not provide the correct answer to the question posted. In other words, a reason does exist, and I remain confident everyone knows it - even if nobody has yet to articulate it.

Second, Outside Bars sometimes kill laterals, but the one to which you refer didn't.

HTH.

- Spydertrader

 

Thanks once again for the feedback. What would help is a little guidance on differentiating outside bars that do end a lateral from those that don't.
I have not debriefed these situations since I find them less common than other issues further up the food chain. Is it something about where one finds themselves in the sequence when they arrive? or having to do with pace levels?

 

No need for frustrations. You currently find yourself at a plateau. From this location, you have solidified your knowledge, and more importantly, your confidence, enabling you to know you can extract profits from the markets on any given day. Congrats to you for reaching this stage.

Again, kudos to you for reaching this stage. Obviously the countless hours of monitoring the markets, and doing the work required, have paid dividends for you.

Write the above down on a sticky note and tape it to your monitor. Throughout the day (specifically when you know the market has completed a Traverse), count the bars used in the Traverse creation. Note the difference between your sticky note, and what the market tells you. Repeat this process until the answer jumps off the screen.

You definitely already know the answer. You simply do not realize it yet. In fact, when I finally do post the answer (unless someone else posts it first), I guarentee you (and a whole bunch of others) will say to themselves (and probably even post), 'Damn! Of course I knew that!!"

For sure it is no pipe dream, and again, the answer is so simple, you'll be amazed you didn't connect the dots sooner. However, yes - you have missed something. What you believe you see, the market has not confirmed. What you think you have in front of you has a subtle difference which makes it a completely different thing.

Rest assured, you currently find yourself very close to the final leg of your journey. No need to force things. Patience is all that you need right now.

When it comes (and it will come), you won't 'wonder' if this is it or not. You'll know. The only thing you'll wonder is, 'Why the hell didn't I see this sooner?? Spyder has been repeating the same thing for 20 months!"

Well, a good place to start might be to review all the posts where you scratched your head and thought, "How the hell can he say that?" in order to create some material for a review. However, it is vitally important that while you seek these solutions you do not change what you do each day with respect to your live trading. Maintain your current trading plateau moving forward, and during debrief and after market close, seek the answers which currently evade your grasp.

Congrats again. HTH.

- Spydertrader

 

Start by differentiating Outside Bars.

- Spydertrader

 

another attempt:
It seems we have been refering to the REAL pt 2 lately and I'm under the assumption continued pace acceleration prolongs the arrival of the REAL pt2. So my guess on what your looking for in an answer lies in there.

 

I'm not sure if this is what your asking but here my view...

Based on this post by Spyder on 12-02-08 9:56 est :

In the afternoon, the green lines start as a Traverse, and then the traverse grows to a channel. The actual point Two of the Channel will develop on the FTT of the Dominant Traverse (blue). In the morning, the trend starts as a traverse and remains a traverse (but creates an accelerated Traverse within it).

We all know that a new channel had started. We also know that a channel has a pt 1,2, and 3 and follows the sequence of dom-non-dom . So because we all know this, we know that the channel sequence completed on 12/4/08 at 11:30 am est.

At this point, critical thinking has to come into play.

Has one thing finished and another one begun? or are the sequences going to recycle?

Thankfully, the market had already given you the answer to these questions in the traverse that started on 12/03/08 at 14:10 pm est and completed at 12/4/08 at 11:30 am est. There is something about how that traverse was constructed that "tips" a trader off as to whether the next sequence is going to be Dominant or Non Dominant. The tipoff in this particular instance told us that the next traverse was going to be non-dom.

Now, knowing that the traverse that began at 12/4/08 at 11:30 am est and ending at 12/5/08 at 10:45 am est was non dom, we all know WMCN...a dominant traverse, which of course did happen, thus given a 5 min ES traverse level trader no reason to exit a long trade until 14:50 pm est on 12/5/08.

Armed with what I consider "correct logic" and based on how Friday's afternoon traverse was constructed this is how I am anticipating the sequences to complete in the next couple of days...

Any and all comments are appreciated.

 

Thank you Spyder for your words of encouragement. Don’t get me wrong about my post. I am actually thrilled that I have gotten to the point where I am now. I know however that I’m not yet “seeing” the Big Picture and that is what is frustrating to me. Also, I still don’t know if this method is “art” or “science” or both. Nevertheless, I will continue to plug away. There is no going back for me at this point!

 

Truth be told, most of my profitable trades come from reading the tapes. I try to take some snapshots during the trading day to debrief later. From Friday, here was my first snapshot. This snapshot doesn’t reflect my final annotations, but one can clearly see that price broke the tape (and channel RTL) on the same bar. That is when I went long.

 

Here is another snapshot. Again, same story, price broke the tape RTL and up she went. I traded the tape break.