You obviously noted and clarified that I referred to a trader in my post to ehorn and not to a 5 min ES Trader. You also may have noted that on that day (12-04-08) I anticipated the following AM's happenings correctly, as did many others. lj
O.K. No problem. You now know that the reason you cannot 'see' the answer here must reside in one of the three areas mentioned above. Start with the easiest of the three in an effort to check which applies to you. It isn't SCT type stuff. In fact, its very far from it. To be clear, what I am speaking of here involves why a trader (only using the ES 5 minute Traverse level) could not in any way think about anything other than holding long. No reverses to the short side; not even thinking about the possibility of considering a reversal. Nope. A trader can profit years before they ever understand how to SCT. In fact, a trader doesn't even need to get this answer correct in order to profit. However, the information does exist, and everyone should have known it in real time - well before the actual time frames discussed. In fact, I can almost guarantee everyone already does know the answer. They just have yet to realize that they do. I believe a more accurate assessment would be to say, you simply haven't put all the pieces together quite yet. While you may be "doing something wrong" (as you put it), the only way to know for sure is to test that which has a possibility of being an error. The lightbulbs flash and the 'Aha' moments arrive at different intervals and with varying force depending where one sits with respect to the learning process. Perhaps doing some of the drills (as callmate once described) can speed things along for you. Nope. The 'pattern recognition' stuff develops while you learn. It does not represent a prerequisite for scheduling the class. Your brain says, 'Hey, I've seen this shit before. Last time it fooled me. This time I am ready for the it!" Then, through the process of differentiation (between that which appears to be the same from that which actually is the same) the jigzaw puzzle, slowly at first, begins to form a coherent picture. Fortunately, everyone moves at their own pace, and what now may appear muddled and murky one day you'll see clearly. Just take it one step at a time. - Spydertrader
I did not note, nor clarify, anything of the kind. Nor does a correctly anticipated 'Pre-Flight' check hold relavence to the issue at hand. With two by four at the ready, allow me to put this as succinctly as possible. ehorn's drill provided everything needed for a trader to know, with 100% certainty, the right side of the market and shows only one possible correct solution. Failure to see this does not represent a problem with the drill, the market or acontextual volume bars. In this specific example, failure to see this represents a problem with respect to the individual who fails to see. Fix it. Don't fix it. Rationalize the viewpoint of 'multiple answers' any way which suits you. It matters not to me which choice you make. I apologize for the terse nature of my tone, but c'mon now Doc. You are so damn close to having this all gel together for you. Does it really make sense that I would spend this much time discussing a topic I didn't even start (especially when I have another topic [of some importance I might add] fired up and ready to go in the bull pen [already posted and awaiting active participation]), unless of course, you were about to head off the reservation? Stop. Think. Breathe. Look around, and consider the possibility the market has just dropped a gift wrapped road map to you by showing you where you must go next in your journey. - Spydertrader
Thank you Spyder for your thoughts. My search for the solution continues and I feel no frustration at this point in time. As I've said before, you and I do not think alike and that is a good thing for me. Your responses to my thoughts permit me to think about something in a different way. So know that I am not trying to invent anything but rather at times am simply inhabiting a different part of the reservation. We are both in agreement that volume leads price and that Gaussians are indicators of sentiment. lj
Could you elaborate on a significance of the drill - it seems to me like pretty straightforward R2R. Since you mentioned the drill a few times - I was just wondering if there's a specific point you were trying to make? I seem to have trouble understanding you posts from time to time - nothing to do with you or your writing style, my own comprehension fails me occasionally. Since I obviously don't want to miss something important you are conveying - this here is nothing more than a request to clarify. Thank you.
This is my goal. To consistently trade on the 5 minute traverse level. This MUST be a pre-requisite to finer fractal trading. This remains elusive on a day to day basis. The answer to this becomes obvious for me. With a roadmap Yes Because there is never uncertainty when you "know that you know". Any uncertainty represents a need to re-examine the 3 concepts above.
Ok, my view. * Dominant traverse up, constructed of faster fractal traverses from 10:45 to 12:30pm. *Retrace traverse from 12:35 to 12:55pm *Final dominant traverse, built from faster fractal traverses from 1:00pm to peak volume at 14:50 Channel completed. If I am wrong. . . back to work ! Edit: made error on time, corrected from 14:40 to 14:50