Iterative Refinement

09/19/08 ES with Buy Sell Signals

 

Recheck the mode of the bar in question.

Apply the Jokari Window to the exact scenario you describe. You should receive two different answers depending on where Price closes with respect to the previous bar.

- Spydertrader

 

There is no feeling involved here, just plain ole cluelessness. No doubt I analyzed and annotated incorrectly starting from the very first bar to the very last. A disappointing reality after investing so much time in an effort to understand the method.

No doubt my continuing poor results are the product of individual failings. After all there are those working the same information that have managed success and profitability. It seems rather obvious, however, that at this late date in the process that I am simply unable to properly perceive on any consistent basis, all the rules and perspectives needed to even approach profitability while just simulating and not trading live.

I have given myself (really have been told ), that I have till October to somehow turn this around. The trudging will continue until then.

Good trading and success is wished for all who chase the dream.

guava

 

Spydertrader,
In an effort to try to understand how the two bars differ, I've listed my assessment of each bar leading up to the bar at 11:55 and then 12:35. I’ve listed all the changes in dominance. Noting both the tape level signals for change, and the two Traverse level signals for change that started and ended this sequence.

(11:00) inc red volume, close back inside previous bar/pennant.
CHANGE (TRAVERSE level ): Dom direction is Up

(11:05) increasing black, price close outside previous bar/lateral
Dom direction is Up

(11:10) inc blk volume on decreasing volatility, close is outside of previous bar.
Change (tape level): Dom direction is Down

(11:15) dec blk volume, close inside previous bar and lateral.
Dom direction is Down

(11:20) 2nd bar of pennant on dec volume.
Dom direction is Down

(11:25) dec red volume, close outside of previous bar.
Change (tape level): Dom direction is Up

(11:30) inc red volume on decreasing volatility, close outside of previous bar/lateral.
Change (tape level): Dom direction is Down

(11:35) dec red volume, close is outside of previous bar.
Change (tape level): Dom direction is Up

(11:40) 2nd bar of pennant on decreasing volume.
Dom direction is Up

(11:45) increasing blk volume, close is outside of previous pennant bar. No confirmation of PT3 on pennant BO.
Dom direction is Up

(11:50) increasing blk volume, close is outside of previous bar. PT3 is CONFIRMED.
Dom direction is Up

(11:55) decreasing blk volume, close is outside of previous bar
jokari window signal for change.
CHANGE (TRAVERSE level ): Dom direction is Down

(12:00) inc blk volume on dec vol, close is outside of previous bar.
Dom direction is Down.

(12:05) 2nd bar of pennant on dec volume.
Dom direction is Down.

(12:10) decreasing blk volume, close is outside of prevous bar.
Dom direction is Down

(12:15) dec blk volume, close is inside of previous bar.
Dom direction is Down

(12:20) dec blk volume, close is inside of previous bar.
Dom direction is Down

(12:25) 2nd bar of pennant on dec volume.
Dom direction is Down.

(12:30) inc blk volume on Lateral BO, close outside of previous bar.
Since inc volume appeared on lateral BO, no change I dominance.
Dom direction is Down

(12:35) Dec blk volume , close outside of previous bar.
Jokari require 3 bars. 2nd bar must increase wrt to 1st bar. 3rd bar must decrease wrt to 2nd bar. I don’t believe 12:30 bar meets the requirements of increasing volume over 1st bar.
Dom direction is Down


So according to my assessment, Dom direction never changed from DOWN, after 11:55. The movement after 11:55 was all Non-Dom movement.
Any comments regarding my mistakes would be appreciated.

Thanks,
Phineas

 

Spyder,

Here are my charts for 9/18 and 9/19. Any comments would be appreciated.

John

 

9/19 Chart

 

Whoa up there guy. No need to feel as if you fail to grasp the whole enchilada. You made two small errors, and instead of focusing on only those errors, you've instead chosen to conclude a whole other thing. Review my responses to your posts and focus only on those areas mentioned. When one encounters an error, one does not need to head all the way back to the beginning. One simply needs to return to a previous plateau. No need to build an entire cathedral out of a few grands of sand.

- Spydertrader

 

You see the details just fine. However, the answer you seek has become obscured by these details. Zoom out and 'see' the bigger picture.

- Spydertrader

 

Both charts resemble my own with a few key differences. I have annotated the 8/18 down channel slightly different than you (resulting in the pennant on increasing black volume 'completing' the channel sequence). In addition, you have a orange-brown up channel on 8/19 which doesn't follow any 'normal' annotating convention. The trend is correct (up), but how price is encapsulated is not.

HTH.

- Spydertrader

 

Gotcha....thanks! And yes, that UP channel was way off...corrected now.

John