Sorry. I saw your chart colored it black and (should have been red if lower low - which is what I had) that is why I thought maybe you had a FBP Yes I am still trying to figure this out. I didn't mean to say that the FBP would have made it a traverse. I am still trying to figure it out. The possibilities I was thinking are: 1) The FBP might have make it a sequence but since guava said it was not a FBP I will exclude that possiblitiy. 2) the volume cycling that guava mentioned I have to see what he means.
I've been playing with the idea that every bar is meaningful and I should have an expectation at the close of the bar. The yellow arrows on the chart is my expectation for the next bar. The red and black arrows are my FORREST trade signals. THe chart was created by a real time simulation of today's price action. I would of done fantastic today cause of the extreme moves. TYpically I might be a bar off or a little slow in my analysis and conviction before I take a trade and overall have a small gain or loss. 5pt chart scale.
IMHO, This is a powerful technique towards developing (A)nalysis. If you have'nt seen it, look at how Spyder outlines bar-by-bar analysis here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2074158#post2074158
Wise decision, and excellent analysis. Note the areas where you (due to your current level of experience) failed to 'see' WMCN with certainty. In these areas, you walked through all scenarios and waited for the market to indicate the correct action. Nicely done. - Spydertrader
what I observed there was a sigificant spike in volume. It is an intersting study to note these throughout the day (how they occur, where in the sequences they occur, what times of the day, etc...) and how price behaves proceeding them.
This was my thinking as to why I broke it down that way. Just the way I had seen it. Don't know why I see things the way I do, but I continue to amaze myself.
Since I had not been aware of this situation occurring prior to today, a review of what seem like similar situations and their outcomes would be of interest. I am fairly certain that my efforts to explain the down traverse of today (9-18-08) will fall short of being informative , I will attempt to explain my comments none the less. 12:30 bar breaks out of a pennant on IRV. The :35 bar follows this with a BO of the lateral traverse (thus ending what was considered a "up traverse") and begins the requisite down traverse to complete the proper sequence of the conclusion of the previous lateral traverse as well as develop a channel. However, the :35 bar breaks out on DRV. The :40 bar returns to IRV. This completes a volume sequence albeit not very convincingly. The :45 bar creates an IBGS on DRV and is followed by the :50 bar that again has IRV. Volume sequence is completed again. The :55 bar is another IBGS on DRV which is followed by the 13:00 bar which also has DRV but a close outside the range of the previous bar. Flag is raised as this is a traverse level signal of change. The :05 bar is a inside bar with IBV, which is also a Traverse level signal of change. The :10 bar confirms the traverse level signal of change with IBV and Price moving up sharply, and up we go. This period 12:30 to 13:05 is or was for me, difficult to determine because the non dominant movement wasn't in one of the three forms we normally see it form (pennant, price retrace or lateral), but volume did however, create troughs throughout this period which were finally followed by traverse level signals of change. My hope is that this explanation will be met with the approval of those who know, however, I do stand ready to be publicly flogged and humiliated for its inaccuracies
Peak Volume OR Pace Acceleration That is the question... I was hoping to stimulate some more discussion regarding these concepts. Also, how does "Volume Surges" fit into these concepts. I often observe Peak Volume occur as an LTL end effect (or nearing) of an L2 traverse and/or L3 channel and Pace Acceleration occur during BO of L2, L3 channels. I also observe volume surges during turning points within L2 traverses (for instance a bar that slams up, creating an opening bar for LM retrace). Can anyone else comment on their observations and/or findings?
Wow, here is the 'free market' at work this morning, after short selling is banned 'temporarily' in the finacial stocks: <img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2077559>