Ivo, One possible way I see it as follows Pink down traverse, followed by Blue lateral traverse and then the purple down traverse. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2034589">
Thank you, bi9foot, that fits together beautifully. It eliminates the Jokari Window Traverse level change signals at 14:30 and 14:45 since they both came before P3 of the purple down Traverse.
Well, did you really see it like this realtime? You honestly saw change (to short) even before the pennant was broken and did not expect a point 3 up? I agree (of course) 11:55 is a point 1 and 14:40 a point 3 and then it is broken but my point is the following: - we have a downchannel. - it is broken clearly on increasing black volume. (no lateral break, no spike bar, no steeper channel break) - We do not get a point 3 up after that. Do you think this cannot happen if we haven't had a lower low before during the same day (making pt1)? Of course it can. These three points above are all facts. So when you say: "There will always be a point three" it is necessary to specify when because it clearly is not always the case if a channel is broken on increasing volume. That is a fact because we all saw it. Imo this comes very close to: Anything can happen. The best I can come up with is: - We BO'ed on increasing black. - So we expect a point 3 up. - We get a pennant. All fine. - Pennant is broken on (a lot of / too much) increasing red volume. - Something unexpected happened. The pennant break created a point 3 down of a wider channel. We do not expect pt3 up anymore. Reasoning like this you wouldn't have lost a lot providing you caught the move up at point 1. (14:40). However, that is not my point. My point is we do not always get a point 3 after a channel break on increasing volume. regards, Ivo
I missed this in real-time and upon review this is the only way I can annotate to stay short until the 15:10 bar. Every other annotation has me starting an up traverse @ 14:30 or 14:45 which I cannot complete before the new lows are made at 15:05 and 15:10.
This isn't even close. The sequences required to complete either a channel or a Traverse had yet to reach completion. As such, no permission to seek a mode change existed. Obviously, you do think they reached completion. In other words, you must have annotated your chart incorrectly. Here's a hint. What everyone considers a channel for today, really shows a super channel. Three Traverses in the morning (all lateral) Three Traverses Midday (Up, lateral, Up) Three Traverses in the Afternoon (Down, Lateral, Down) And another Lateral to end the day. - Spydertrader
Bi9foot, I just ran into a snag. If we annotate the steeper down Traverse with P3 at 14:00 (pink on your chart), then 14:10 becomes an FTT and a Traverse-level change signal. But as Spydertrader noted here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...al+and+traverse+change+and+signal#post2030111 A Traverse Level Signal for change occurs where one needs to reverse - not where one needs to hold. Since we are supposed to hold through a Lateral Traverse, my understanding is that a Traverse-level change signal won't occur at the end of a dominant Traverse which precedes a non-dominant Lateral Traverse. If this is true, then the 14:10 bar cannot be followed by a Lateral Traverse. Furthermore, there is no subsequent Traverse-level change signal to the downside, except for the IRV as it exits the Lateral. Hmm...
It would be helpful to know whether those who saw my posts a few hours ago a) are not able to answer unequivocally that the gray lines are a traverse or not or b) unwilling to do so. I almost feel like some here think I'm posting something so simple that I must be doing this out of spite or something. I assure you all it is not. I'm looking for a concrete starting point to build off of and don't want to make any false assumptions. More and more it appears that long time adherents to this method are missing a solid foundation to build on. I don't want to make this same error. EIther those gray lines are a traverse or they are not. Mr Black, Callmate, Tums? Can not one of you state with certainty if it's a traverse or not?