A couple of questions for Spyder or anyone else: 1. It appears that the 'constrained to the traverse level' criterion for JW, PFBO and PeV has been maintained although it might be perceived, incorrectly, to have been modified to accomodate 'intrafractal movements". Is that correct? 2. We are 'searching for the point 3 of the LTR and the two possibilities on Monday would be either a persistence of the 'search' by having the LTR continue or a sustained BO of the LM to give a point 3 which would then be followed by the anticipated second down traverse. Is this correct? TIA lj
Just a passing comment. This is a nicely annotated snippet. So I see an open and it "talks to me" as usual. I feel the pre 9:30 EST is there and I "see" volume at Extraordinary right out of the gate. Just saying "Why wait? and I'm off to the races. Not talking in an after the fact parlance. It is just a "tape of 3>4>etc...... I do notice the expanding volatility and it makes me watch the coming to the close AND PRV........ 22 or 23 minutes have held my attention. Since I'm on my horse and I am still going from 1 to 2, I am ready to ease out of the "carry over" mode and into the new day. What I feel is "no more push" the last part of bar 5..... Understand that I have really checked out a lot of other things besides this chart snippet. I'm going to knock down 40 trades, so I am ready to get on with sniffing out the day. During this time (and the discussion here extends to bar 8), I am in Extraordinary pace and riding the left side of the tape on a 1>2 ride for 22 minutes. I am knowing the dom is over without any internals on the dom on a case level of looking at things. Repeating... outside info is helping me all the time for each data set. I like the next feelings I get as I see PRV gap get small because the decelerating volume that ends bar 5 got me to hit T and go into non dom mode and look for internals..... that could even prevent me from having a non dom tape from pt2 to pt3 to set the first traverse of the day in stone. So I am past trade1 on my log and in trade 2. I have all of par 6 to sit through. Volume acceleration is the name of the game during bar 7. It gets to be an outside bar somehow and I feel my way through the bar's growth "in terms of bar 6". Somewhere between the top end of bar 7 forming and after the OB being "set" before that, I am glued to the surges of volume that accelerate bar seven volume and the moments when the voume pauses in its accumulation. Again I turn to things outside of the snippet. I'm now on trade 3 of the day and I am PAST POINT 3..... I HAVE THE DAY IN HAND..... So what is cooking... for volume and dealing with bar 8 ...I KNOW RANGE EXPANSION IS ON THE TABLE.... that is it..... When does the highest volume of the am come? Why am I not checking out the relative acceleration of three volume bars as a thing to do as the day unfolds? I think it is because the time period of three bars is relatively long compared to the great amount of info coming my way....... Each open I am working to get to channel level and to do that I have to knock off a few tapes as a step towards notching in pt2 of a channel. 3 trades out of 40 are nearly done and I am getting the first range expansion under my wing. I am looking for volume to dictate the continued expansion or not. as the bar is coming to and end I see how the gap is declining between completed volume and that which remains to be bagged. The ball moves, too and that is the vernier for acceleration deceleration. Again I am sweeping the display for leading indications too. It is not important that bar 8, near the end of its formation gets me into trade 4 and 10% of the way through my day. I am most feeling that the first range expansion after the day sets up is happening a little after 10:00 am in the morning. all I am saying is I feel the context and I am rady for some price activity that is no longer related to range expansion. I want that H-L to be nice evey day. And now I want to turn to getting a pt 3 for a channel because then I have my "outside" container in place. Once it is there, then more range expansion can be the factor in the FTT of the first channel of the day. "inside" these things spoken about above are many lesser details. They come from other places mostly and help me to "see" the P, V of ES. I know you are discussing polishing the discussion of "peaking volume". It is possible I chatted about it too but in a "technique" emphasis sort of way rathr than a "knowledge" emphasis sort of way. Great annotations, the boxes are neat as they relate to trending and internals.
Hi there, The goal is to be profitable. To be profitable you have to understand the market but you don't have to understand everything about it to be profitable. JH method teaches us to understand the market. The few people I have communicated with who are profitable trading JH method have some things in common. - they are very patient and disciplined - they don't know everything about JH method - they wait for a specific situation (setup) to occur and if it doesn't happen they don't take trades. - while being profitable they laugh, learn and gradually develop new setups. I feel some of us are trying to understand everything very quickly. That is not necessary for profits. just take what you do know and trade it. Do something simple and do it every day. The idea of SCT (always in, reversals, understanding everything) is poison for the mind of the beginning trader. Just my opinion. regards, Ivo
This is really great Jack! Thanks for sharing a glimpse into some aspects of your thinking and routine.
given a peak volume marks a beginning of a new trend/channel and at this point we just start with the second traverse thus it's not a Pvol.
Then you are jumping fractals - entering on a traverse and waiting for a channel event to exit / reverse. Peak volume occurs at all fractal levels. If you are a traverse level trader it makes sense to monitor peak volume in the traverse you are currently riding. Thanks for hi-lighting the area of confusion.
I went to bed last PM after the 11:03 PM post and awoke this AM to find the above post from Jack. It has been my experience that the way to maximize what I get out of his posts in general and a post like this, in particular, is to read it once quickly to get a feel for what he is saying and then make a decision whether or not to read it again at a later time word by word. Sometimes I mistakenly decide, "Naa, this ain't gonna cut it" and then days later 'discover' my error and go back and start over again. Me not going to be doing that with this post. He is SCTing as few can and as many would like to. He answered my questions and gave me ideas to generate more. Thank you for sharing in a most pleasant and personal way. lj von Clausewitz said the greatest enemy of a good plan was the search for a perfect one, but then, as always, we get into the definition thingy of what is 'good' and what is 'perfect'. The way around the dilemma is the 'earn while you learn' approach espoused by callmate, amongst others, an approach that I will shortly be adopting because I'm tired of watching the river of money flow by me as I sit on the bank of the river contemplating the river of money flowing by me. Which is to say, as icarus said, experientia docet.
Some individulas recently suggested they have experienced frustration with respect to moving to the next step in the learning process. My goal, with the examples posted, included providing a roadmap for people to "Learn how to learn," while at the same time, show everyone the value of differentiation with respect to determing the existance of mode change (or not) and maintaining a singular fractal monitoring effort (or not). Nowhere have I suggested that monitoring at all fractal levels is a bad thing, nor have I suggested 'jumping fractals' leads to an ultimate train wreck. Quite the contrary. What I have repeatedly suggested is that 'jumping fractals' without knowing one has done so reinforces bad habits, and can often thwart the learning process. The goal here is twofold. For those who cannot 'see' the path before them: learning to use differentiation can illuminate the next steps in the process. For those who can already see, delineating the various fractals creates opportunity to 'see' the limits of one fractal while outlining the areas of opportunity on the next. Listen. No need to overcomplicate this stuff. Peak volume has existed as a term since Equities. However, in equities, when one views a perceived example of Peak Volume, the action step differs. In equities, one simply exists with a profit. IF, by chance, the trader mistakenly viewed the signal as Peak Volume, when in reality, the market had signaled an Acceleration of Pace, no harm is done because the trader has already headed to the sidelines. In futures, the action step required, when viewing Peak volume, calls for a reverse. Does this mean if one isn't reversing, and only planned to enter and exit (Bar 1 and Bar 8 respectively) that one has screwed up? Absolutely not. However, one must have the ability to see the line in the sand which differentiates Peak Volume from Pace Acceleration. Why? Because Peak Volume provides one signal from the market, while Pace Acceleration provides an entirely different signal. Again, someone attempting to learn the signals provided by the market needs to learn to differentiate between apples and oranges in order to find the commonality which exists. Again, this is simple stuff. Resist your normal impulse to overcomplicate, and focus on both the similarities and the differences - in all areas of this methodology. HTH. - Spydertrader