Iterative Refinement

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Jan 3, 2008.

  1. #5721     Jul 27, 2008

  2. Spyder's choice of words can be subtle,

    when understood, make all the difference.
     
    #5722     Jul 27, 2008
  3. #5723     Jul 27, 2008
  4. Attached is my work on 7/24/08. The lavender horizontal lines represent a lateral traverse (pt3 channel). As this lateral channel was preceded by a down traverse (pt3 channel) I expected the lateral channel to be followed by another down traverse (pt3 channel).

    THis is what we got. Everything was clear to me until the first red diamond. At the time of the red diamond, the market was in a down tape which was a dominant move of an established pt3 channel.

    A VE along with decreasing dominant volume in the context desribed above is what I thought would indicate change and WMCN would be an up traverse (pt3 channel).

    The bar after the first diamond (doji) was on increasing volume accompanied by lateral movement, which seemed to confirm the change.

    THen the market proceeded down again. More or less the same thing happened at the second diamond. I have studied and tried to look at this different ways for many, many hours. My only guess as to what I''m not seeing correctly is that it has something to do with the way that channels seem to get wider and then what once was a pt3 becomes a full channel. IT's like the fractal changes in a moment. I'm lost:(
     
    #5724     Jul 27, 2008
  5. I posted this chart on 7/24/08 at 1:48pm.

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2005922

    Looking back on this, It looks as if there was a traverse in place and no signal for change at the traverse level. Is this correct?

    The day fanned as it went on as far as no change signal.

    Then I would have entered short on open and held till EOD because of no signal for change on the traverse level?

    Spyder's Charts:

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2005663

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2006028

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2006205


    Any feedback is appreciated.
     
    #5725     Jul 27, 2008
  6. :D I tend to do the same. When I can't find an answer, I ask myself: WWSD? (What Would Spydertrader Do:D ) And then I peek at his chart
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2006205
    and say to myself: " Damn, he's already got points 1 and 2 there - so, what usually comes next is point 3. "
    So the market signaled change as it transitioned from pt2 to pt3. Or, so it seems to me
     
    #5726     Jul 27, 2008
  7. Here is Spyders Chart from July 24 pieced together ( not very well).
     
    #5727     Jul 27, 2008
  8. Thank you, that's the one I meant.

    You're getting good at this:D . What's your take on this:
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2007973#post2007973
    The dashed orange lines on my chart
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2008722
    obviously do not represent a valid traverse. Setting aside the reasons for orange dashed lines not being a traverse, this appears to be the case of "no change at traverse level (red Point Three Down)" and therefore the resolution issue. I must be an idiot or something cause I still can't get it.:D
     
    #5728     Jul 27, 2008
  9. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2009435>

    .... and Exit into the close ....

    - Spydertrader
     
    #5729     Jul 27, 2008
  10. It looks to me like there's a red channel, which was decelerated (fanned outward) and became brown. There's plenty of traverses inside both, and since traverse level change exists where one traverse ends and another begins then logically there's plenty of those (traverse level change signals) as well.
     
    #5730     Jul 27, 2008