Iterative Refinement

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Jan 3, 2008.

  1. gucci

    gucci

    Spydertrader, thank you for being discreet.:) This is the major drawback of the relativity theory, or my sloppiness... I would plead for the flaw on this bar due to the volume drop-off.
     
    #5511     Jul 24, 2008
  2. I don't have a program which allows for instantaneous (or thereabouts) determination of the pace. However Jack has spoken in the past about a 'pacing seam' which is a volume above which one can expect a trend to be maintained and below which a trend will not be maintained.
    In lieu of a program like the one alluded to above, I use a 6 period EMA of the volume (suggested by the dude with the ponytail and a nasty cough [I smoke too Jack - gasp]) to provide a crude estimate of the pace. In the case of bar 6, the V was about 80% of the pacing seam. So for the moment, I'll hold with the 'hold = continue' but as always, I will not hold onto my conjecture if I can be shown to be wrong, which as we all know rarely happens (ho, ho, ho).

    lj
     
    #5512     Jul 24, 2008
  3. dkm

    dkm

    No flaw or VE since p3. Flaw level vol. Anticipate flaw.
     
    #5513     Jul 24, 2008
  4. My trades today....:)
     
    #5514     Jul 24, 2008
  5. gucci

    gucci

    Flawless :D
     
    #5515     Jul 24, 2008
  6. My 1'st short was good entry but the exit was bad....still working on "HOLD" issues:)
     
    #5516     Jul 24, 2008
  7. He-he I exit exactly on bar 6 ....thus I fail this test:D
     
    #5517     Jul 24, 2008
  8. dkm

    dkm

    short tape (bars 4 & 5) rtl bo with decr vol.
     
    #5518     Jul 24, 2008
  9. I am inclined to side with dkm with the disclaimer that my answer is not internalized or drilled-down yet. After doing this drill

    I am yet to figure out what the market is communicating. Since this part of methodology is very important, could you clarify one of your earlier comments:

    Does it mean that at 11:30 (07-22) looking at the attached chart one can see the market clearly communicating that the type of change one expects to materialize here will be anything but an FTT (an FTT can be eliminated as one of the possibilities with 100% certainty). And all that is displayed on ES only, without 2m YM.
     
    #5519     Jul 24, 2008
  10. :D I meant his previous answer: no FTT without a VE or flaw yet.
     
    #5520     Jul 24, 2008