Iterative Refinement

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Jan 3, 2008.

  1. It gets even crazier than this. The non-dom traverse 1110 eob - 1225 eob presented itself in the form of the channel (dom traverse 1120 eob - 1155 eob followed by lateral LTR traverse). So now we need not just the traverse but the full channel to takes price back to LTL. I have trouble picturing how something like this is suppose to end through an FTT (levels?)
     
    #5181     Jul 16, 2008
  2. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1997338>
     
    #5182     Jul 16, 2008
  3. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1997342>
     
    #5183     Jul 16, 2008
  4. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1997347>
     
    #5184     Jul 16, 2008
  5. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1997350>
     
    #5185     Jul 16, 2008
  6. Well, I made a Monitoring blunder earlier when I neglected the lack of Flaw or VE in the late afternoon blue up Traverse. I have such blunders at least once every day after 3 p.m., due to fatigue. Fortunately, if I had been simming I would have held on Bar 73 due to the IBGS on IRV and then I would have held through the Flaw in the steeper purple up Traverse.

    Bar 78 gives us the purple and gray FTTs just as we anticipated after the Flaw in the purple Traverse was completed on Bar 77.

    Have you ever noticed that the final dominant Traverse of a Channel doesn't always show a Flaw or VE? What's the best way to handle this situation? Look at the steeper gray up Traverse at the end of the day. There hasn't been a Flaw or VE yet, but Bar 78 is an FTT (It's also a VE of the green and blue Traverses). Notice that it shows peak Volume and a close off the high (Volume is the highest since Bar 14). I wouldn't trade after hours but for the sake of discussion, Bar 78 should be enough to justify a reversal. But if I was in this trade and missed the FTT because I was waiting for a Flaw, I would exit on Bar 79 when it BOs 2 RTLs on FTT-like DRV and increasing volatility.
     
    #5186     Jul 16, 2008
  7. Thank you for the charts, Spydertrader! As always today has been extremely helpful.
     
    #5187     Jul 16, 2008
  8. ehorn

    ehorn

    My view of the day (ES) attached.
     
    #5188     Jul 16, 2008
  9. There seems to be no small amount of consternation with respect to Bar 8 in the ES of the AM of 7/15. Clearly the signal for a change in mode cannot be either a VE or a tape ftt (both of which are present in the 'orange channel' (sic) of Spyder's first chart o' the day). The down traverse actually began the evening before and if one draws the appropriate collection of tapes and traverses, it is glaringly obvious what is going on. Furthermore, IMO, if one monitors on 3 time fractals (YM2, ES5 and ES15), as repeatedly suggested by JH, the point is driven home even more forcefully.
    Context is crucial, as Spyder has stated innumerable times, and the use of carryover channels, traverses and tapes does a lot to facilitate the appreciation of what is contextually appropriate for me. It makes no sense to view each day in isolation.

    lj
     
    #5189     Jul 16, 2008
  10. I think that bar 8 is the signal for a change precisely because it is a VE of the dominant traverse

    I tried drawing CO TL's but I can't see what you see.
    The first 5 bars of 7/15 create pt3 formation and everything else, I think stems from there.


    :D Personally, I would settle for being able to 'see' the market Monitoring exclsuively of the 5 minute ES
     
    #5190     Jul 16, 2008