Got short CRY today. But got in late at 10.92. The stock went back up on decreased black and I felt it couldn't sustain this move upwards so I held. It ended up down past my original entry on increased red but the daily seems to show an FBO of the light blue(almost lateral) channel. I'm cautious for any sign of change to an uptrend tomorrow. Comments welcome
ES M8 Daily Chart June / 3 / 2008 Daily ES bar made a LL and a LH on increased volume today. Daily bar range = 24.25 points Close of daily bar = 37% of the range today.
Did I miss this original post this evening? I don't see it except for reply. This is a trade Spyder posted this evening?
LOL The most impressive part of it is that I would have definitely been out around 1380 dancing around like I just made $25 grand in an hour and a half... I have some learning to do I definitely get the entry, but dont understand some of the holds and especially the exit. In any event, that trade should provide some more dialogue, especially if you want to post some more in the future (just throwin that out there )
not that I can hold like that but once the move started and broke the big lateral on extreme volume one should hold from p2-pt3. The 1350 bar could be a pt3 but the channel was too steep so one could hold for another pt3. that came at the 14:20 bar so now one can look for sign of change which came at 14:30 on an IVDV bar. Thats just my take in hindsight. Prolly misssing something.
Thank you for this thorough reply. If you might be able to reply to a couple questions about the above portion of your post: 1) what exactly was the drill? Was it merely a matter of eyeballing these items on an annotated chart in order to train your minds eye for the patterns present? 2) "hundreds and hundreds" mean several years worth of data. I know Spyder started posting his charts beginning near end of 2006. Do you have a suggestion on where to obtain additional 5min charts from the past which to practice on? Thanks again so much for your valuable input.
OK. First off. Thanks for the kind words everyone, but really, this isn't about my trade, so lets keep the focus exactly where it needs to be - on 'seeing' the signals provided by the market. First thing everyone needs to do is draw a nice big lateral starting at 12:50 [close of] ES bar. Note how all the bar closes fall within this lateral until the BO at 13:30 [close of] ES Bar. Now, note the ES from 10:00 AM onward. We see a down traverse followed by an up traverse situated inside an up channel. Guess what has to happen when we form a down channel? A down traverse followed by an up traverse, right? Well, almost right. We all know Lateral movement often forms a channel traverse. In these cases, we term the phenomenon a LTR (Left to Right Traverse). While we expect the down traverse to be followed by an up traverse, we can 'see' the Lateral Movement formed (beginning at 12:50) and know this LTR will create continuation downward. OK. So, there is the first part. Now, look at 13:45 [close of] ES bar. Jander thinks he would have jumped ship here. Why? We have seen many times how when a channel widens we often have to build traverses within it for Price to head back to the other side. This channel is certainly wide enough for us to anticipate that. As such, we will need another down traverse before we can build an up traverse to take us back across the channel. As a result, 13:45 becomes 'Point Two to Point Three' of our traverse - an easy hold. the 14:00 [Close of] ES Bar presents another change signal, but again what haven't we seen yet on this long road down? A flaw perhaps? Since I still see Price within the Right Trend Line, I have no worries. I can always exit late if price exits the RTL on increasing black volume. After all its been a nice run so far. After this change signal, the market confirms with a pennent. Nice. Now we have lateral movement. Draw in another lateral here. Note the closes once again all line up. Price breaks the RTL on decreasing black (that ain't good for a long is it?) and forms an IBGS. The market provides another round of increasing red for good measure. Time to look for a spot to reverse long. Since the YM leads the ES, we wait for the YM to signal, and nearly 2.5 hours after the trade began, we bank our profits. Again, I don't like to post blotters anymore because it puts the focus on dollars, rather than learning to 'see' continuation or change. Hopefully, the above explanation provides some insight into my thinking. HTH - Spydertrader
It sure does, Thanks for the debrief. I was also amazed how well the cascades down respected the higher fractal channels drawn on the daily as of last evening. Pretty much exactly where retraces occurred until the FTT. I think someone summarized it very eloquently today Spyder. You are THE REAL DEAL!
here is the full context, how many VEs, FTTs, Flaws per chart per day? Can you you erase then redraw them on the the same chart a few times?