Worked out well but it was a little tricky for me. Increasing red followed by BO and increasing black. I really think it is only possible to take this trade when it is obvious that 11:05 is going to be increasing red (based on PRV) and it's going to breakout. (of course YM helps-->pennant BO increasing red). It's normal to expect a point 3 (down) after increasing red but not if we get increasing black after that inside the original channel. It still happened. regards, Ivo
Got long RICK today around 22.90 at about 10:15am. Looked to be moving up. For the rest of the day it saw little volume and moved into a lateral. I got out when Increasing red showed at the end of the day and it looked to be breaking out of the lateral. A question I have is could this lateral be considered a point 2 retrace and could a point three emerge tomorrow if increasing black BO of the lateral?
ES M8 Daily Chart May / 27/ 2008 Daily ES bar formed an outside bar today on increased volume. Daily bar broke out of down tape to confirm point 2 of new possible down channel. Looking for the retrace at this time to form the new point 3 down. Does anyone have an idea which previous slope can be borrowed to give an estimate on new down channel slope ? Daily bar range = 17.75 points. Close of daily bar = 82 % of total range today
This is the chart with the blue upchannel slope borrowed. I am not sure , would I borrow the blue upchannel slope or the more recent ( edit )dark green channel slope? Here is the blue slope borrowed. This is not a prediction. Working on what to anticipate as a point 3 down channel may appear here if the FTT is not taken out with a higher high.
I still don't understand why you continue to use a 30 minute chart. How does your daily chart compare to the above quoted text? - Spydertrader
I try to use the thirty minute to correspond to the daily channels....In terms of seeing decreasing to increasing volume and a BO on the daily channel that isn't as apparent from the daily volume or Quotetracker PRV on the daily chart. Where I get too clingy to the thirty is my exit. I exit many times based on the 30's interpretation of PRV and many times on that same day Ill exit at any sign of red when I'm long or black when I'm short neglecting that these are clearly retraces just as with RICK today. It has been working for me in terms of wash trades and being cautious but clearly in this case the play was a transition from 0 to 7 today and a definite hold for tomorrow according to the daily. Its definitely an issue I have to work through though.
Yep, I had that annotated as well. This BO came just a little quicker than the BO of the big channel. regards, Ivo