3 ways for price to move from pt2 to pt3? 1. A retrace 2. A lateral formation or pennant 3. A lateral movement
________________________________ dkm thanks, but as far as I can think you've described 3 different pathways of the price moving from point 2 to point 3 but not the P-V sequence???Quote from Spydertrader: " The above quote refers to the 'sequences' of price AND Volume and how Price can move between these two points. Three ways exist (three 'pathways' if you will) for Price to accomplish this goal." Am I wrong? What do I miss?
There are three events that can cause TEMPORARILY increased volume in the non-dominant direction as price moves to pt3. cnms2 posted these just a few posts ago. This is your +P, +V way. Study the charts to understand why these happen when they do, or they will take you by surprise.
My attempt: 3 ways for price to move from Pt2 to Pt3: 1. Retrace - price goes Higher/Lower on Non-Dominant Volume. Example on up channel: Price makes Lower Lows on decreasing red (see ES: 05/16/2008 - 12h00 to 12h10 ) 2. Lateral/Pennant Formation or Lateral Movement on Non-Dominant Volume: Example on up channel: Price forms a sym pennant on decreasing red (see ES: 05/20/2008 â 12h15 and 12h20) 3. Outside Bar or IBGS on Increasing Non-Dominant Volume (but the wrong kind). Example on up channel: IBGS up on increasing Red (see ES: 05/16/2008 â 14h10)
Here basically the same situation as yesterday. (eurodollar futures) 8:30 we get change. Everything fine after that: decreasing black towards RTL 8:45 decreasing volume and decreasing volatility. Anticipate change. 8:50 previous bar is taken out on the low. So we do have change. One can decide to hold long expecting a point 3 up inside the red channel as we broke out of the black down channel. (on decreasing black by the way: that is a big difference with yesterday!) However, close of 8:50 bar shows increasing red, making a point 2-->3 move impossible. The sequence is flawed, we go back to the red channel. Reverse short. I think I read this correct. P&L followed regards, Ivo
Thank you. I think because the black channel was broken on decreasing black just the 8:45 bar being broken (->price going back down) is enough reason/signal to go short again and to not expect a point 3 up. No need to wait for increasing red. (Although of course it does have to happen eventually, we're in a downchannel after all and price can only continue to go down on increasing red.) regards, Ivo
I think it originally was a +volume in non-dominant direction issue and that's why I gave the info I did: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1929185#post1929185
Not that you are saying differently, but, I think it is always important to consider MADA on EVERY bar. We do anticipate WMCN, but we need to monitor and analyze consistently and constantly. Consider the notes on my attachment. as an example. In my humble opinion, We expect sequences to develop and study to know them, but we can not be lulled into rule-sets thinking when monitoring continue/change.