The actual signal for change occured one bar prior - [close of] the 14:45 bar when Price moved in the dominant direction on decreasing dominant Volume. At that same time, the YM had already signaled change. So when the ES [close of] 14:50 bar appeared to confirm the previous bar's signal for change, one then needs to go check the YM again. Why? The YM leads the ES. Since the close of the last ES bar, the YM had already returned to increasing black and therefore, signaled a return to up as the dominant direction - once again. And as you pointed out, the YM then showed lateral movement which in and of itself doesn't meet the sufficiency test, and therefore shows continuation. - Spydertrader
Nice day - the 20 SMA smoothly followed the RTL of the main channels all day (apart from the trend shifts of course). Enjoy the weekend .
Todd, I have a question regarding the leading pairs and such. Would you mind me asking some about it.
Hey all, I have done very well the past two weeks. Unfortunately, I have not been keeping a careful journal, so that is resolution 1. I need to understand what I am doing different the past two weeks. I am reading through the futures journal, and I think beginning to absorb what it means to know where you are to the right side of the market. I have a question about DU however. As I am reviewing my trades over the past two weeks, I have noticed that I am using DU and FRV less and less as a rule, and more as a guideline. This is especially the case with stocks which have had low volume for a month or two. This has led to some very profitable trades. Instead, I am weighting more and more my analysis of the daily charts. I look to see where in the channel the equity is, and what the volume is telling me. For example, SOLF did not reach FRV before this weeks breakout, and though I exited out after making about 20% (I could have made 40 by this point), it was a solid win. However, it was increasing black volume over the previous day, it had just broken through the 20 SMA, and it was only halfway up its new steep channel. There have been a few trades which have not worked out or been nominally profitable, but no real losers. The real losers come from not having examined the daily chart carefully AT ALL. Anyway, I am wondering if this is the point of the DU and FRV rules. They are guidelines to an underlying theory that can be dug deeper into. Please correct me if I am wrong. JF
Just a quick check up of some basics, to make sure I am getting them. FTT - This is when the price FAILS to move from the RTL (NOT the left) to the left. This is THE indicator of change. It is always followed by FBO, BO, or another FTT. FBO - A Failed break out after an FTT. Results in two bars outside of trend, but then a reentry. BO - Price breaks out of the trend, forming a new trend. Rules so far for what to do after FTT FTT - Reverse BO - Hold FBO - Exit (for me... a beginner) As far as drawing channels... this is where I can get confused. 1) the new p1 occurs at the Ftt (I believe on the bar right before BO) 2) The new pt2 exists at the first high (or low, depending upon trend) followed by a decline. 3) The new pt3 is at the first low (or high, depending upong trend) followed by INCREASING volume in the reverse direction. Please correct me if I am misunderstanding these basics. Thanks! JF
WOoHoo!! I was hoping one would happen EVENTUALLY. (It's been almost a year since my first trade). JF P.S. All due to the hard work of everyone before me!!! THANK YOU!