Hey all, In the beginning of the Futures journal, there is a link for "Determining Trend" which is non-existant. Does someone know where it is, or if it exists anymore? Thanks JF
What happened to Stretch/Squeeze today? I swear it looks like Fair Value flipped polarity today! My offset went bonkers (good thing I don't use S/S right now! ) It sort of settled, I just found the change unusual... I chart Fair Value (just YM-DJ) so I can see what it does... this picture is normally minimized -- I only pull it up when the offset seems wrong. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1921143> It is a 30sec chart and the average is of the median (H+L/2) -- since the bar closes are irrelevant here... I wanted to know where it was spending most of its time, so to speak. Fair enough, the avg typically provides a good offset to use the next morning... (For example, -1.2) and I may check it again during lunch as a confirmation.
My attempt on M and A of MADA this morning. Pointing fingers at mistakes is encouraged. Waiting until market sync for the first three bars I notice the increasing black volume on bar 2 which does not rule out the possibility that the price travels in a dominant traverse from pt1 to pt2. Bar 3 is IBGS and shows price moving laterally on decreasing volume. Means change took place inside the bar. Bar 4 heads higher on decreasing volume but closes inside the previous bar range indicating continuation of the lateral movement. Bar 5 heads higher on increasing black volume but closes inside the previous bar range indicating again continuation of the lateral movement. Bar 6 heads lower on decreasing red volume which is what is expected from a retrace, making the high of bar 5 suspect for pt2. Bar 7 shows decreasing red volume as expected from the retrace and forms FBP. My hypothesis is that the price has formed pt2 and now moving laterally towards pt3. I am now on a look out for change and pt3. Bar 8 [1010 close of] shows up on increasing red volume, which I donât expect in a retrace but it is also IBGS â signal for change, so I go long. Bar 9 [1015 close of] shows increasing red volume, which I donât expect in a retrace and forms pt3 down channel. I am confused but luckily bar 9 closes inside the previous bar range which gives me permission to look at YM. YM shows an FTT on 1012 [close of] bar followed by retrace on decreasing red volume back to RTL on 1014 [close of] bar. 1016 [close of] YM bar fails to break RTL and resumes upward movement on increasing black PRV. That still does not alleviate my confusion. Therefore I exit and sideline. Bar 10 [1020 close of] travels higher breaking the RTL of my pt3 channel on decreased black volume, thus making it invalid. I am still uncertain which direction is dominant so I sit on my hands and wait. Bar 11 [1025 close of] forms FBP on decreasing red volume. Bar 12 [1030 close of] shows up on increasing black volume giving me pt3 up and I reenter long. Bar 13 [1035 close of] heads higher on increased black volume showing continuation in a pt3 up channel Bar 14 [1040 close of] travels higher on decreased black volume, making me anticipate change, and closes inside the previous bar range indicating the lateral movement. Since after pt3 I am on a look out for FTT. 1040 [close of] YM bar shows lateral movement so I hold. Bar 15 [1045 close of] forms FBP on decreasing black volume indicating continuation of lateral making bar 14 suspect for FTT. YM shows an FTT followed by retrace back to RTL on decreased volume and as 1046 [close of] YM bar forms it shows increasing red PRV, just as expected after an FTT. YM signals change and I reverse. Bar 16 [1050 close of] retraces back to RTL as expected after an FTT Bar 17 [1055 close of] forms SYM Bar 18 [1100 close of] BOâs RTL on increasing red volume, bingo we have R2R with channel BO and looks like price travels from pt1 to pt2. It also confirms pt3 of the Bar 19 [1105 close of] forms FBP on decreasing red alerting to the possibility that this whole price movement, which started with an FTT may be a retrace. Bar 20 [1110 close of] forms inside the previous formation Bar 21 [1115 close of] touches LTL of the chubby tape indicating change on lower resolution level and beginning of retrace inside chubby pt3 tape, so I hold. Bar 22 [1120 close of] is IBGS indicating the end of retrace inside chubby pt3 tape, so I continue to hold. Bar 23 [1125 close of] shows up on decreasing red volume in what assumed to be a dominant traverse from pt1 to pt2 creating confusion and exit.