Iterative Refinement

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Jan 3, 2008.

  1. This is not the case with me. When I was trading live (pre JHM) I was more apprehensive than when I simulate, but even now (simulating) I am preoccupied with being right and above all not ending the day negative. Ending the day negative prolongs my time simulating and delays the day I can turn wishful thinking into reality. Consequently, although I believe I see the right side of the market (and am usually correct) I always need additional confirmation before I act, yes on the simulator :(. I believe that additional exposure and studying will bring additional confidence that the MA I do is correct and that will lead to better DA's.
     
    #341     Jan 16, 2008
  2. I have a feeling that my maroon RTL was incorrect because I missed the up move due the fact that price BO'd this channel on decreasing volume. Initially the 14:20 bar had me thinking the up trend was ending and then we got my old nemesis an outside bar. Hate those damn things.

    Finally I was short at 14:50 @1393.25 and managed to freak myself out of the move so I exited at 14:53 @ 1393.25 :D. Nice huh? This is standard fare for me.

    Finally I was monitoring the titanic battle between two channels around 15:30 and figured I would enter short at break of red RTL, but I just wasn't absolutely. positively, 100% for sure sure, so I didn't. Then of course I was way too far away from the RTL to enter so away it went.

    On the bright side I managed to eek out 3 pts :D :D :D
     
    #342     Jan 16, 2008
  3. Avi 8

    Avi 8

    Not up on my german, but I prefer annotated charts to peguin porn.
     
    #343     Jan 16, 2008
  4. ES Daily January 16 /2008
    Adjusted volume bottom pane.
    Last bar forming is for the 17th.

    [​IMG]
     
    #344     Jan 16, 2008
  5. cnms2

    cnms2

    In my experience the "confirmation" you're talking about turns negative an otherwise positive P&L. It brings you too late at the table.
     
    #345     Jan 16, 2008
  6. cnms2

    cnms2

    Homework: "How to identify an FTT?" :)

    1 - What can be seen before an FTT at each level of information: price, volume, annotations, indicators? Write it down!

    2 - What can be anticipated to be seen after an FTT at each level of information: price, volume, annotations, indicators? Write it down!

    3 - What is the usual sequence of changes from left to right, with the FTT in the middle? Write it down!

    At the finest level of resolution, the FTT is a tape RTL breakout. Before it there are signals / events that anticipate it. After it there are signals / events that confirm it. Lack of confirmation means ...

    This is what sweeping is all about. :)
     
    #346     Jan 16, 2008
  7. From personal experience also, I think that if you can get over the "being right" thing then the "additional confirmation" thing will vanish. No trader is always right with his/her initial trading decisions. Tudor-Jones says losing is part of the game and he's right. It can really suck getting over the necessity to always be right but if you don't, you can't trade, IMO.

    lj
     
    #347     Jan 16, 2008
  8. Of this I have no doubts :D
     
    #348     Jan 16, 2008
  9. Recently I have abandon trying to trade FTT's and rely on PT3's for all entries because at present I cannot accurately identify them, I see them all over the place which is obviously incorrect. Perhaps the addition of these suggestions to my nightly debrief will help.

    Thanks.
     
    #349     Jan 16, 2008
  10. Or substitute "Point Three" where you see "FTT" in cnms2's post.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #350     Jan 16, 2008