Iterative Refinement

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Spydertrader, Jan 3, 2008.

  1. I couldn't monitor yesterday, but fwiw:

    Overall, range is compressing and volume shrinking through lunch. Throughout this sequence there is no strong B volume (12:00 is an IB, and 12:10 is a strong rejection), so there doesn't seem much possibility of a good up move before some further move down.

    Nevertheless, after the DU of R volume at 12:30, and the VDU at 12:50, I may have entered long on the 12:55 bar, anticipating continued incr B and an initial BO up to end the lunch hour. (I tend to anticipate too much, though....) I hope I would have been alert enough to reverse short or exit on the 1:00 bar as volume disappeared and movement stalled.
     
    #3311     May 8, 2008
  2. Thanks, Spydertrader. Do you generally hold through 'Point 4' to 'Point 5' retraces, or do you act on change signals at that point?

    No further questions, but an interesting detail:

    The sequence involved was originally a very narrow down channel, pt 3 to pt 4 move that BO'd a lateral. The retrace moved back into the lateral and then BO'd the down channel.

    When I look at it now that NT has redownloaded the data, it has become a tape FBO of a lateral. I probably wouldn't have traded it at all with my current rules - or if I had I would have been looking for quick point or two.

    I guess this shows the importance of getting the overall context and the ebb and flow of the market rather than getting bogged in arbitrary details.

    Thanks again-
    palinuro
     
    #3312     May 8, 2008
  3. Ivob,

    I was already long from the close of the 13:55 bar. The IRV of the 14:10 did alert me that something was amiss, but I was slow to react which is why I posted the "Oops, pennant BO w/ IRV, reverse short" at the 14:15 bar.

    Hope this helps.
     
    #3313     May 8, 2008
  4. Ivob,

    Basically I anticipate the market to develop in certain ways and when it doesn't, or when WMCN doesn't, I interpret that as a signal for change.
     
    #3314     May 8, 2008
  5. Ask this question, and then, review the answer you quoted. I believe you already have the answer required for clarity.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #3315     May 8, 2008
  6. Maybe those of you don't 'see' why Guavaman did what he did should spend some time reviewing both The ES and The YM during the periods in question, as well as, any subtle differences which exist during the two time periods.

    - Spydertrader
     
    #3316     May 8, 2008
  7. Avi 8

    Avi 8

    Ok guys, when Spydertrader says this, it is a 'foot stomper'. In other words the context has changed. We've all heard that before right? And when the context changes, the answer changes.

    So look at the first bar in question, it is a BO of a RTL whereas the second bar in question is a point three down. Two very different contexts and therefore, two very different 'D'ecisions and 'A'ctions.
     
    #3317     May 8, 2008
  8. sscott

    sscott

    A Great Post Atari, Thanks.......
     
    #3318     May 8, 2008
  9. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1914085>
     
    #3319     May 8, 2008
  10. Ym ES to bar 39....:)
     
    #3320     May 8, 2008