Good final results but I'd be interested in your MADA for your trade 3. You held short for a 5.5 pt draw down through an economic announcement?
How could one know to hold short after the IBGS on bar 9 until the bar 19 IBGS? Specifically, how could one know NOT to reverse on the FTT of the steep channel on bar 13 and to expect to 'fan' the down channel? (This example assumes beginning trader, i.e. FTT to FTT) I will post later with charts illustrated how I 'knew'. Let's see some discussion on this first.
I'll have to look for those posts so I apologize if I am incorrect and the following is obviously just my opinion. I agree with your intra bar analysis, and I might have had a preliminary trend line drawn, but would have deleted it after the OSB closed. The channel seems questionable and doesn't really help to frame the picture since the sequences played out nicely immediately afterwards. In this case we have a taped move down from pt1 to 2 and are really moving laterally from point 2 to 3. The real pt3 showed up two bars later as you correctly annotated
Lordy, no apologies necessary In the end it seems as if we both had the same analysis, as I was mentally short all the way through bar 19. I guess so long as you get to the right place, how you get there is not drastically critical. Thank you again for critiquing.
Bars 9 to 13 were simply movement from p1 to p2 with bar 12 giving us increasing red confirming that down had become dominant and this was more than just a retrace. Bar 13 also took out any possibility of p3 up on the day. Therefore we are anticipating a p3 down before we have our FTT. As bar 15 is forming it gave us inc. red making bar 14 our potential p3, but by the end of the bar we finish with a FBO of Lateral Movement and OB on increasing black. While technically this could be seen as a p3 and FTT of the resulting down channel that was formed intra-bar. There were a couple of context considerations that made this unlikely imo. First, we remained in Lateral Movement making it likely we were still searching for our p3 down (the fact that the bar ended w/ inc black is also not necessarily a reason for worry b/c it occurred within Lateral Movement, but we would not want to see more inc black on the next bar). My second consideration was that, if we considered bar 14 our potential p3 the resulting slope of that down channel would have been much steeper than the slope of the up channel we just came out of, which again would lead us to anticipate a better p3 channel being formed. Bar 17 finally gives us our proper p3 down with increasing red and BO of Lateral Movement. We can now start our bar to bar sweeps for the actual FTT. Bar 19 continuing down on dec. red volume and finishing with an IBGS gives us our potential FTT which is confirmed by price going up on decreasing black thereafter. -A
This is like deja vu all over again. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1903756#post1903756
Times shown are bar OPEN. +Bar9 (10:10) showed an IBGS and closed w/in the previous bar. Since we're w/in prev bar (i.e. lateral), we may look to the YM2M. - YM2M 10:14 shows incr red vol. ES5M shows change to decr red. YM2M shows change to incr red. Is this sufficient confirmation of directional change ? - YM2M 10:16 shows more incr red which should confirm the change. We should be short. (note this falls within the ES5M 10:15 bar) +Bar10 (10:15) shows incr red with a BO of the up ch RTL. We see more confirmation of the change (i.e. sequence of dominos falling). We hold. +Bar11 (10:20) shows decr red indicating change against our short. We continue to watch the ES5M for confirmation of the change. We hold. +Bar12 (10:25) shows incr. red again and thus Fails To Confirm the change, which means we No Change and we hold. +Bar13 (10:30) possible IBGS. Is this change ? We're lateral and so we may look to YM2M for detail. - YM2M 10:36 shows incr red within the lateral. No confirmation. - YM2M 10:38 shows incr red within the lateral. No confirmation. - back to the ES5M. We hold. +Bar14 (10:35) shows decr red and closes w/in prev bar. - YM2M 10:40 shows both incr red and decr blk which means change at this finer resolution. - YM2M 10:42 shows decr blk and confirms change at this finer resolution. - back to the ES5M. We hold. To be continued... - Talas