So beast-slayer that you are ehorn, where would you have gone long? With the first penetration of the scaly bastard or the second one? lj
LOL! What is more important is that EVERYONE should have known that at 15:35 the market had made its intentions VERY clear... All times Eastern and [close-of] bar.
Couldn't agree more. Although you didn't post a chart yesterday so I don't know how you viewed it, do you think that the EOD upward price movement from the point of change today, carries the same message as it did yesterday? That is that we have completed a downchannel and are in the first leg of a new upchannel, as neoxx intimated (and with which you agreed) with his day ja vu word-play? lj
I am certain of one thing... sequences MUST complete. With that knowledge - what are we awaiting for the sequence completion of what the market began at EOD today? WMCN?
Quote from ljyoung: Couldn't agree more. Although you didn't post a chart yesterday so I don't know how you viewed it, do you think that the EOD upward price movement from the point of change today, carries the same message as it did yesterday? That is that we have completed a downchannel and are in the first leg of a new upchannel, as neoxx intimated (and with which you agreed) with his day ja vu word-play? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from ehorn: I am certain of one thing... sequences MUST complete. With that knowledge - what are we awaiting for the sequence completion of what the market began at EOD today? WMCN? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- That's my point ehorn. If you agree with what neoxx said about today being a replica of yesterday and if what neoxx (and everyone else who posted) said was that yesterday the downchannel was done and the first leg of an upchannel had begun, then does today's EOD price movement say the same thing? On both days, the ES, IMO, showed a chubby uptape. However, as I've said earlier, the chubby uptape thingy did not appear to pan out BUT what I can't get from anyone is what the correct interpretation is. I went back and questioned the assignment of the traverse change signal after 12:15 EST but after looking at romanus' post, I'm returning to the original assignment which no one else appears to have rejected. So my question is what is the thing on the left-hand side of neoxx's chart posted today which bridges yesterday's and today's downchannels? lj The post romanus referred to showed what I would call, for want of a better phrase, a 'transitional lateral' and would suggest that 15:30 is the P1. Interestingly, YM clearly shows a 15:30 P1 but that is aside from the point we are discussing above.
I made no implied inference regarding neoxx's tapes, traverses, channels, or projections. I simply could relate to his comment in that the market chose to build similar patterns both today and yesterday and thought his comment was witty. I try very hard not to predict sentiment, the market projects its intent all day every day and it is the traders role to listen and be/stay on the right side. This channel and that channel... his channel, her channel, my channel... cool... The market is the final arbiter. I am focused on sequences and traverses (tapes, TL's, volume, gaussians) and listening to what the market is telling me in the now and what it is projecting into the near future. My intent was to get you to think about EOD today what you see. I see an up tape and a B2B volume sequence. So again I ask you, based on your knowledge of sequences (tapes, TL's, volume, gaussians), WMCN? (Rhetorical question) If you know the answer to this question then you have the facilities to know the right side come next trading day and if you know the answer to this then you also know how the market develops everyday... all day...
.. interestingly enough, a quick glance at that area shows a difference between the 5m-ES and the 5m-YM (to compare apples ..), so the dominance is a little different
Thanks ehorn for your reply. I think I have a pretty good understanding of what is going on but it frustrates me when it appears that rules have been violated. Like yourself I find it most beneficial to focus my monitoring efforts on the tapes, traverses, Gaussians and TL's. 95+% of the time the channels simply show themselves and obey the rules. However there are times when there appear to be violations of channel heirarchical structure and today was one of them. There was a similar situation around Christmas when channel RTL's and LTL's were being violated and I remember Spyder providing solace by basically saying, "Shit happens". It is always, so far as I have been able to ascertain, ES, which starts screwing with things. As I have mentioned before but will mention again, Joseph Stalin once said, "Quantity has a quality of its own" and that is what we are seeing here. He told his generals that when they ran into a minefield to send the infantry out first, in front of the tanks. Brutal but effective, in the short run anyways. So I agree completely with you that it is our task, and we thankfully have the implements to do this, to ALWAYS be on the right side of the market. The market is brutal if you don't heed what it is telling you. Today, very clearly, the market said we were going into a downchannel. Thank you again. lj
1540 yesterday made a VE which is usually followed by accel traverse - one can consider the situation yesterday eob as sequence not being completed. Today we get a new p3 of the channel and what took us there looked to me like 5 min es level traverse if you ignore the gap. Then the first traverse of the day also created a VE of the channel (1105, which now became a new p2 of the channel) and as such another sequence of traverses followed because the p2 of the channel now migrated to 1105 today. A variation of the comment Spydertrader made that in the absence of sequence completion we fan. Can't find anything wrong with logic above - anybody is welcomed to take a stab at proving the contrary.