Where to begin?? 1. One would think that the freakin gigantic OB at 10::05 would have been enough to inform me to go short, but since I wasn't convinced we completed a full traverse I was very late to the party. Finally I just had to cry uncle and get in. 2. I missed the importance of the 10:45 bar in real time. Even once I discovered the nuance in that bar. again I wasn't convinced I was correct and basically missed the whole of the first move up. 3. I saw 12:40 as PA and no signal for change, but I was aware there could be a sizable pullback. For whatever reason I just didn't anticipate a long and volatile traverse. 4. Just when I thought I must have been wrong in my analysis and we must be in a Dominant down situation, I entered short at the open of the 14:10 bar. No bueno as they say and there goes all the rest of the points. 5. I was expecting the Faster Fractal Traverse (whatever that is right )of the Up move (starting at 14:10) to turn into a full traverse so the IBGS w/ IBV at 15:05 didn't tell me the up gig was up. You can actually smell the carnage at this point :eek: 6. Naturally, since I was unaware that the Dominance had changed I missed the Down move except when I tried to catch a falling knife at the 15:20 bar w/ the break of the high of the 15:15 bar and entered long. Uh oh again. 7. I didn't believe that the IBGS w/ IBV represented a "opposing tape" and therefore we didn't have a FF Traverse in play) b/c it closed inside the previous down tape, so my short position (initiated w/ a reversal at the break of the low of the 15:20 bar) didn't react when the 15:45 bar moved up on IBV. As you probably surmised by now, it was long past the time for a respectable mercy kill and I should simply turn off the computer. I wish I could inform you all that I retained just a spec of dignity and did just that, but that would be untruthful. What happened next is really no more wretchedly disturbing than what preceded it, but having read this far, you all have suffered enough. Well there's the sausage making as it happens in the tortured mind of Guava. Its okay to avert your eyes because God knows it sure ain't pretty
Attached is a table of the pace/volty levels that I used today. I have been more keen on observing a bar's volty given its pace level as it approaches the end of its run (i.e. nearing an FTT) and as it is beginning a new run (i.e. bo of a RTL). For a given volume pace level, price should have a corresponding volatility. This we all know. I have started to notice that when price is nearing an FTT however, the bar's volty many times will be less than what it should be given its pace level. This often precedes the actual signal for change. I sort of think of this as the market running out of steam for the moment. Likewise, I have also noticed that when price breaks out of a RTL and is beginning a new run, the bar's volty is often greater than what one would expect given it's pace level. Sort of a little extra exuberance confirming that the market has changed direction. I would like to know if anyone else has made these same observations or are these too subtle and I'm trying to see things that aren't there. Thanks.
FWIW I notice these anomalies - increasing volume/decreasing volatility and decreasing volume/increasing volatility - in the context of WMCN, especially during End Effects (as you noted) as well as when the market is beginning moving from Pt2 to Pt3. Other times they serve as a guide to anticipate an opposing tape in a Faster Fractal (you know I just can't get enough of those freakin bastids) or when we BO a lateral w/out enough conviction and a retrace of some sort is coming. - thoughts from guava
I believe the 15:40 bar is a Pt2 of a Down Traverse. So PV or PA on the 5 min ES traverse is moot. IM(ever loving)HO